ST Alpha - "Citi Investment Research cuts rating on Disney stock. Claims HSX estimates on THOR and CAPAM are $100M too high. -- (link)" (Reading a Post)

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Citi Investment Research cuts rating on Disney stock. Claims HSX estimates on THOR and CAPAM are $100M too high. -- (link)

Posted by not2fast Apr 26 '11, 11:51

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HSX prices are more like 170 and 190 now, but still high by their estimate. (www.benzinga.com)

Responses:

funny, but I'm still bummed -- nm - ceregon Apr 26, 12:04 1
- stupid enter key...still bummed I can't put real money in box office futures...I could have retired 10 years early -- nm - ceregon Apr 26, 12:04
HSX prices predict box office after 4 weekends of wide release, correct? Not a total? Or is that close enough not to matter? -- nm - mara Apr 26, 11:57 18
- the analyst accounts for that in his calculations to get his estimate for total box office -- nm - znufrii Apr 26, 12:02
- Technically, HSX prices predict the opening weekend estimate times 2.7 for normal weekends. - ty97 Apr 26, 12:01 13
  - Course, this is also if you believe HSX sells the stock price as their data - Will Hunting Apr 26, 12:03 2
    - This is what I'm thinking - that the numbers in the article are not references to the HSX prices. -- nm - ty97 Apr 26, 12:04 1
      - they are derived from the HSX data. -- nm - znufrii Apr 26, 12:08
  - And times of the year, IIRC. Summer blockbuster films have much shorter legs than winter films, for example. -- nm - con_carne Apr 26, 12:03
  - old data. but I still think it might be high. -- nm - amanda jones Apr 26, 12:01 8
    - Thor hasn't been priced higher than 209.05 any time this year. I wonder if HSX is putting out its own full-run estimates? -- nm - ty97 Apr 26, 12:03 7
      - maybe they have formulas that extrapolate from the 4 week to full run? we just don't see it? -- nm - Andie Apr 26, 12:08 1
        
        Sounds logical. -- nm - ty97 Apr 26, 12:09
      - then what's the point of the game?? hey speaking of, I am going to start playing the movies market again. no bonds, just movies. - amanda jones Apr 26, 12:06 2
        
        I started playing a little more actively a few weeks ago. And have promptly lost money. (how?!) - ty97 Apr 26, 12:07 1
        
        that was the long answer version of: yes -- nm - ty97 Apr 26, 12:08
      - Likewise, CAPAM's max is 226.25 - ty97 Apr 26, 12:04 1
        
        Weirdly enough, if you apply the 2.8 multiplier to those highs instead of 2.7, you come up with 216 and 234. -- nm - Jelly Apr 26, 12:05
- they still do the 2.8 adjust oagainst opening weekend BO IIRC, only they do the adjust on Saturday or something equally stupid now -- nm - Beaker Apr 26, 11:59 2
  - or is it 2.7 now? -- nm - Beaker Apr 26, 12:00 1
    - 2.7. -- nm - Jelly Apr 26, 12:01
I'll take 'headlines you did not expect' for $1000, Alex -- nm - ty97 Apr 26, 11:56
it wasn't me! -- nm - znufrii Apr 26, 11:53
*NOT* DC!!! -- nm - remlick Apr 26, 11:53
Why am I picturing Max Keiser cackling maniacally? I mean... more than usual. -- nm - Mop (212 lbs) Apr 26, 11:52
I would be amused if they are right. -- nm - Beryllium Apr 26, 11:52 3
- Does Citi have market analysts who specialize in movie projections? Citi, being Citi, I guess they do. - Mop (212 lbs) Apr 26, 11:53 2
  - *whistles innocently* - znufrii Apr 26, 11:57 1
    - "in short"?! -- nm - TFox Apr 26, 11:58
I'll wait till RazorHawk tells me what to do -- nm - Beaker Apr 26, 11:51

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