ST Alpha - "HSX prices predict box office after 4 weekends of wide release, correct? Not a total? Or is that close enough not to matter? -- nm" (Reading a Post)

SlickerTalk
Search Archives
The Leaderboard
The FAQ

Login
Create Account

Search Dr. S. Talk
TT/ST Wiki
How Well Do You Know ...

RSS Feed

Hosting by DigitalOcean

Support ST on Ko-Fi

Down to Post

Backboards:

Posts: 159

In response to "Citi Investment Research cuts rating on Disney stock. Claims HSX estimates on THOR and CAPAM are $100M too high. -- (link)" by not2fast

HSX prices predict box office after 4 weekends of wide release, correct? Not a total? Or is that close enough not to matter? -- nm

Posted by mara Apr 26 '11, 11:57

(No message)

Responses:

the analyst accounts for that in his calculations to get his estimate for total box office -- nm - znufrii Apr 26, 12:02
Technically, HSX prices predict the opening weekend estimate times 2.7 for normal weekends. - ty97 Apr 26, 12:01 13
- Course, this is also if you believe HSX sells the stock price as their data - Will Hunting Apr 26, 12:03 2
  - This is what I'm thinking - that the numbers in the article are not references to the HSX prices. -- nm - ty97 Apr 26, 12:04 1
    - they are derived from the HSX data. -- nm - znufrii Apr 26, 12:08
- And times of the year, IIRC. Summer blockbuster films have much shorter legs than winter films, for example. -- nm - con_carne Apr 26, 12:03
- old data. but I still think it might be high. -- nm - amanda jones Apr 26, 12:01 8
  - Thor hasn't been priced higher than 209.05 any time this year. I wonder if HSX is putting out its own full-run estimates? -- nm - ty97 Apr 26, 12:03 7
    - maybe they have formulas that extrapolate from the 4 week to full run? we just don't see it? -- nm - Andie Apr 26, 12:08 1
      - Sounds logical. -- nm - ty97 Apr 26, 12:09
    - then what's the point of the game?? hey speaking of, I am going to start playing the movies market again. no bonds, just movies. - amanda jones Apr 26, 12:06 2
      - I started playing a little more actively a few weeks ago. And have promptly lost money. (how?!) - ty97 Apr 26, 12:07 1
        
        that was the long answer version of: yes -- nm - ty97 Apr 26, 12:08
    - Likewise, CAPAM's max is 226.25 - ty97 Apr 26, 12:04 1
      - Weirdly enough, if you apply the 2.8 multiplier to those highs instead of 2.7, you come up with 216 and 234. -- nm - Jelly Apr 26, 12:05
they still do the 2.8 adjust oagainst opening weekend BO IIRC, only they do the adjust on Saturday or something equally stupid now -- nm - Beaker Apr 26, 11:59 2
- or is it 2.7 now? -- nm - Beaker Apr 26, 12:00 1
  - 2.7. -- nm - Jelly Apr 26, 12:01

Post a message top

Replies are disabled on threads older than 7 days.