ST Alpha - "Technically, HSX prices predict the opening weekend estimate times 2.7 for normal weekends." (Reading a Post)

SlickerTalk
Search Archives
The Leaderboard
The FAQ

Down to Post

Backboards:

Posts: 159

In response to "HSX prices predict box office after 4 weekends of wide release, correct? Not a total? Or is that close enough not to matter? -- nm" by mara

Technically, HSX prices predict the opening weekend estimate times 2.7 for normal weekends.

Posted by ty97 Apr 26 '11, 12:01

2.2 for Memorial Day, 2.0 for Thanksgiving.

And that is supposed to be a reasonable estimation of what four weeks of BO will look like, though it clearly misses for some genres.

The thing is....Thor is priced at 169 right not, not 216, so not sure where that number is from.

Responses:

Course, this is also if you believe HSX sells the stock price as their data - Will Hunting Apr 26, 12:03 2
- This is what I'm thinking - that the numbers in the article are not references to the HSX prices. -- nm - ty97 Apr 26, 12:04 1
  - they are derived from the HSX data. -- nm - znufrii Apr 26, 12:08
And times of the year, IIRC. Summer blockbuster films have much shorter legs than winter films, for example. -- nm - con_carne Apr 26, 12:03
old data. but I still think it might be high. -- nm - amanda jones Apr 26, 12:01 8
- Thor hasn't been priced higher than 209.05 any time this year. I wonder if HSX is putting out its own full-run estimates? -- nm - ty97 Apr 26, 12:03 7
  - maybe they have formulas that extrapolate from the 4 week to full run? we just don't see it? -- nm - Andie Apr 26, 12:08 1
    - Sounds logical. -- nm - ty97 Apr 26, 12:09
  - then what's the point of the game?? hey speaking of, I am going to start playing the movies market again. no bonds, just movies. - amanda jones Apr 26, 12:06 2
    - I started playing a little more actively a few weeks ago. And have promptly lost money. (how?!) - ty97 Apr 26, 12:07 1
      - that was the long answer version of: yes -- nm - ty97 Apr 26, 12:08
  - Likewise, CAPAM's max is 226.25 - ty97 Apr 26, 12:04 1
    - Weirdly enough, if you apply the 2.8 multiplier to those highs instead of 2.7, you come up with 216 and 234. -- nm - Jelly Apr 26, 12:05

Post a message top

Technically, HSX prices predict the opening weekend estimate times 2.7 for normal weekends.

Replies are disabled on threads older than 7 days.