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In response to "well, of course the stimulus package helped in the short term. there's no question about that...." by x

I think it depends how you measure the positive. I believe the short term benefits smoothed out the downward drop and it's really impossible to know

just how bad things would have gotten without it and what the long term effects of getting that bad would have had (might have led to more panic and even greater drops). Obviously the long term negative is the mess we have right now and other things we'll have to deal with, but it's just impossible to know what the effects of not having done the stimulus would be. My gut says it would have been awful, but there's no way to know.

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