|
In response to
"Kevin Slowey from the Twins to the Rockies for a player to be named later"
by
Beaker
|
the full post
Posted by
Beaker (aka anniebecca)
Dec 6 '11, 09:55
|
From: Jonah Keri
Sent: Tues, Dec 6, 2011 at 12:23 PM
Subject: On The Rox
A 73-win team just made a move everyone hates, and might soon make another. Color me intrigued.
The Rockies reached a deal with the Twins today, acquiring right-handed starter Kevin Slowey from the Twins for a player to be named later. If you did nothing other than eyeball Slowey's strikeout-to-walk rate -- often a great indicator of a pitcher's value, or hidden value -- you'd think Colorado was getting a steal. Here's a list of the top strikeout-to-walk rates for all starting pitchers in the past 20 years (minimum 500 innings pitched):
Curt Schilling 4.73
Kevin Slowey 4.70
Bret Saberhagen 4.49
Pedro Martinez 4.30
Greg Maddux 4.29
That's two future first-ballot Hall of Famers, another with a strong chance to get in, and one of the best starting pitchers never to make the Hall. And Kevin Freaking Slowey.
So what gives? Well, Slowey's a right-handed starting pitcher with an average fastball around 89 mph. He needs to spot his soft stuff perfectly for 100 pitches every fifth day, or risk getting crushed. He also owns the third-highest flyball rate of any starting pitcher in the past three years. The result: Hordes of giddy fans in the bleachers, waiting for the next souvenir from above. Check out that list of top strikeout-to-walk pitchers again with home run rate and FIP-compared-to-league-average added, and you can see how far behind Slowey is.
And now he's going to Coors Field. Yikes.
Ah, but here's a theory going around the lobby among the statsy crowd here in Dallas: When you're a pitcher like Kevin Slowey with killer command but so-so stuff, you're going to throw X number of meatballs no matter what, and those meatballs will sail out of any ballpark. Give him 30 starts in Denver and maybe he gives up 40 solo homers. But if he also walks 30, that's a lot of solo homers waiting to happen, and maybe a bunch of 7-5 Rockies wins.
It's a kooky theory, one that would be further tested if the Rockies also trade closer Huston Street for talented, but homer-prone Reds righty Edinson Volquez. But on a team that needs a bridge to Ubaldo Jimenez, it's a cheap, intriguing idea. With two stars in the middle of the lineup, an emerging ace in Jhoulys Chacin, perpetually weak NL West competition around them, and a recent track record for playoff runs no one expects, ya never know.
Just bring your glove.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
|
Responses:
|