ST Alpha - "it's very regional, but nationwide supply levels are still pretty high imo, even with housing starts cratering. there's a lot of inventory to...." (Reading a Post)

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In response to "I think the housing market has very little room left to fall, really. hyde, aren't prices about inline with historical home price inflation now? -- nm" by the year of the ox loves mandy lane

it's very regional, but nationwide supply levels are still pretty high imo, even with housing starts cratering. there's a lot of inventory to....

Posted by x (aka dmuck) Jan 22 '09, 10:38

work through, and a disturbing percentage of sales in places like the west are coming from foreclosures. i'd say there's still fair downside risk in a lot of markets, though likely we're closer to the bottom than the top.

note: i've been wrong before.

Responses:

Yeah, the National Association of Home Builders puts the excess inventory at 1.5M homes (nm) - Brian Jan 22, 10:50
my point is that if you wait too long for the bottom, you'll certainly miss it. I would rather lose on this side, I think. - the year of the ox loves mandy lane Jan 22, 10:45 7
- i thought you were asking broadly if i thought there was still room for downside. i don't have any input on what people do with their own money...nm - x Jan 22, 10:51 2
  - oh I'm so sorry. I didn't mean to imply that at all. I'm not asking for advice. I've pretty well made up my mind. - the year of the ox loves mandy lane Jan 22, 10:55 1
    - no, it's cool. i just try and stay clear of the "it's a good time to buy" or "it's a terrible time to buy" stuff i see here a lot... - x Jan 22, 11:01
- That's very risky. There's a lot of down side and very little up side. - Mop Jan 22, 10:48 2
  - In real estate, there's always an upside. It's just a matter of how long it takes. -- nm - Max Jan 22, 10:55
  - I don't have a family for whom I need to be risk averse. I can absorb that risk. - the year of the ox loves mandy lane Jan 22, 10:49
- bottom or not bottom doesn't matter when it's still out of your range. (not you, me) -- nm - loosilu Jan 22, 10:46

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it's very regional, but nationwide supply levels are still pretty high imo, even with housing starts cratering. there's a lot of inventory to....

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