ST Alpha - "it's not about the candidates, it's about the math." (Reading a Post)

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In response to "It's not about any one candidate. It's about the totality of them. The far right is rejecting this candidate and they are accumulating delegates." by David

it's not about the candidates, it's about the math.

Posted by znufrii Mar 6 '12, 20:25

How many delegates do you think Paul and Gingrich will get in the end, and can Santorum stay within that distance of Romney to keep him from crossing the line?

furthermore, if Romney pulls out Ohio and a majority of the delegates at stake (or even a sizable enough plurality), he controls the narrative for this cycle, which gives him a huge advantage going forward.

Responses:

Delegates do not have to vote the way they were elected thoug. Romney could be broken enough by the convention that some delegates switch to others. -- nm - tRu Pad Mar 6, 21:03
Personally, I don't think there's much doubt about who the Republican nominee will be, but I think tonight's results still weaken Romney overall. - Roger More Mar 6, 20:34 13
- not if he ends up winning Ohio... -- nm - znufrii Mar 6, 20:38 12
  - It will still be a marginal victory, like Michigan was. And no one's dropping out due to tonight's results. -- nm - Roger More Mar 6, 20:41 11
    - but it gives him control of the narrative momentum, as Ohio was the state most everyone was paying attention to. -- nm - znufrii Mar 6, 20:43 9
      - The narrative is that he lost too many states. Again. - David Mar 6, 20:47 4
        
        I don't get how going 7 for 11 today (assuming current results hold and Alaska isn't problematic) leads to the narrative he lost too many states? -- nm - znufrii Mar 6, 20:51 3
        
        Because he lost two he should have won, is a coin flip in another, and two of the others needed 15k votes or less. - David Mar 6, 20:55 2
        
        yeah, I can't say I see that narrative taking hold, really. - znufrii Mar 6, 21:04 1
        
        It will. -- nm - David Mar 6, 21:14
      - not to mention he seems likely to win an outright majority of the delegates at stake in all contests today. -- nm - znufrii Mar 6, 20:44 2
        
        Just so I'm clear, my post was about how tonight affects Romney's chances in the Presidential election, not the primaries. - Roger More Mar 6, 20:47 1
        
        ah, gotcha. -- nm - znufrii Mar 6, 20:52
      - If Newt drops out a few days ago, Santorum takes Ohio easy. Thanks Newt for cock blocking Santorum. -- nm - Bacon, NOT Engaged Mar 6, 20:44
    - Though Ron Paul should -- nm - Bacon, NOT Engaged Mar 6, 20:42
Dude, if Romney doesn't have a majority and isn't coronated after one round of voting, NOBODY has delegates. - David Mar 6, 20:29 1
- hey! dude on the cart! the horse is back there a ways... - znufrii Mar 6, 20:35

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it's not about the candidates, it's about the math.

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