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Beaker, I waited to reply here to help you with your goal of discussing this on every board til the end of time.

Posted by TFox Mar 14 '12, 07:06

It's amusing that you quote Chad Ford, in that Chad Ford had Oden as the #1 player in the 2007 draft going in (see here):

http://insider.espn.go.com/nba/draft/results/players?id=19020&_slug_=greg-oden

I'm going to make a poker analogy. If you raise all in pre-flop with aces, and lose the hand, does that mean the player made a dumb play? No. It means that sometimes shit happens.

I'll make another analogy: is Len Bias a draft bust? Should the Celtics not have drafted him because they should have known from his pre-draft workouts that he was going to inhale some coke and die within 48 hours? The answer is that, if you are a fan, Len Bias and Greg Oden both shattered your dreams, and you're always going to play "what if?" Fine. What David and I are saying is, a draft bust is a player who due to a failure in scouting or evaluation, is selected before another far superior player, for reasons that it was possible to know at the time they made the decision. And that was *not* true of Greg Oden, despite the admittedly hilarious speculation about his leg lengths. *Most* of the questions about Oden pre-draft were related to his wrist, which Portland correctly ascertained to not be a long-term health problem for him.

And in closing, let's not front like Durant was question free at the draft. Because...

if you are positing that there were no questions about whether this frame could handle the grind of the NBA at the 07 Draft, you've lost it. (i.cdn.turner.com)

if you are positing that there were no questions about whether this frame could handle the grind of the NBA at the 07 Draft, you've lost it.

Responses:

We care about the NBA? -- nm - MDH Mar 14, 07:21
fair enough, I only used two of the hundreds of articles calling him a bust as David has some inside knowledge apparently which all these writers do - Beaker Mar 14, 07:13 17
- and actually, you're right, i think i overstepped my definition a little, but not in a way that changes the Oden argument. - TFox Mar 14, 07:18
- The Jeff Green trade is a bust because he sucks at basketball and is the damn devil. Don't invoke Jeff Green. - TFox Mar 14, 07:16 15
  - I don't disagree, but shit happens and players who seemed like sure things fall apart for one reason or another, turning them into busts regardless - Beaker Mar 14, 07:18 14
    - The Crosby Syndrome -- nm - Beryllium Mar 14, 07:19 13
      - He's going to be one of the greatest what-ifs ever assuming he is done in short order with another concussion. -- nm - Will Hunting Mar 14, 07:21 1
        
        This is more what I am referring to, yes. -- nm - Beryllium Mar 14, 07:22
      - We're through the looking glass if a guy who's won a Stanley Cup, a playoffs MVP and a regular season MVP is a bust. -- nm - Reagen Mar 14, 07:20
      - interesting case here, but he's won a Cup, lead the League in scoring and won a Gold Medal, he is far from a bust -- nm - Beaker Mar 14, 07:19 9
        
        i would only note that as far as we know, the only difference between Crosby and Oden is that Crosby has been luckier. That's it. - TFox Mar 14, 07:21 8
        
        sure, but would anyone not draft Crosby given what he has done? I say no, he still goes #1 with a bullet, Oden doesn't get drafted -- nm - Beaker Mar 14, 07:32 7
        
        with perfect knowledge and a time machine, a lot of things change. - Reagen Mar 14, 07:40 6
        
        IIRC, Oden's knees were a huge concern before he stepped foot onto an NBA court. - groiny Mar 14, 07:45 5
        
        this was discussed yesterday when it initially came up. He hadn't had any knee problems coming into the draft. -- nm - Reagen Mar 14, 07:49 4
        
        and yet 3 months after the draft he had his first surgery, but I;m sure no one knew before hand... -- nm - Beaker Mar 14, 07:53 3
        
        bad shit happens sometimes. You need to accept this. -- nm - Reagen Mar 14, 07:53 2
        
        sure, doesn't change the fact that he was a draft bust though; exactly because bad shit happens. - Beaker Mar 14, 07:56 1
        
        so we're back to Len Bias. -- nm - Reagen Mar 14, 07:58

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Beaker, I waited to reply here to help you with your goal of discussing this on every board til the end of time.

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