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The Perils of March polls - one set of O v. R and O v. S has Romney +2 and Obama +1:

Posted by Reagen Mar 14 '12, 09:24

Another has O +12 and O +18.

Responses:

[deleted] 36
- You're like Hammy from Over the Hedge when these nonsense polls are published. -- nm - David Mar 14, 10:10
- (It's Rassmussen, though. They're hilariously Republican leaning) -- nm - Reagen Mar 14, 09:27 34
  - Despite my theory yesterday (which looks even more possible today), I think it winds up being Mitt, but he's going to look pretty weak heading into - pmb Mar 14, 09:43 33
    - This is becoming more and more similar to Dukakis in 88. -- nm - Strongbad Mar 14, 09:59
    - [deleted] 8
      - It weakens him because Romney will continue to be defined by his opponents, rather than by his own campaign. - Roger More Mar 14, 10:12
      - Different levels of passion --- 3 months ago, Rick Santorum was a no-name. 2 months ago, he was shuffled back after Iowa. 6 weeks ago, he rebounded - Will Hunting Mar 14, 10:08
      - I think "beating Obama" is a motivating factor for primary voters, not the mainstream general electorate -- nm - con_carne Mar 14, 10:08
      - Obama/Clinton was Ali/Frasier. This is not that. This is a guy with every possible advantage struggling to seal the deal (and looking awkward trying - pmb Mar 14, 10:04 4
        
        what that narrative conveniently ignores is this is precisely how the system was constructed, there is little opportunity to "seal the deal" -- nm - znufrii Mar 14, 10:08 3
        
        It's a perception issue. If Romney was winning these states, even by small margins, the perception would be very different. But he's not, even - pmb Mar 14, 10:12
        
        Sure there is. McCain had it all but wrapped up by this point in 08. - Reagen Mar 14, 10:11 1
        
        2008 was completely different, more states were winner take all, and half the delegate were awarded by Feb 5th. -- nm - znufrii Mar 14, 10:13
    - It is pretty close to impossible for Santorum to get the full number. It's not implausible at all for him to deny Romney that number though. -- nm - Reagen Mar 14, 09:44 22
      - Santorum is like the Short Program in Figure Skating before the New Scoring System. You could never win the competition in the Short Program, but you - Diva Mar 14, 09:54 4
        
        heh. (What is the new scoring system, out of curiosity?) -- nm - Don Homer Mar 14, 09:55 3
        
        They've thrown out the old 6.0 scoring system with ordinals applied to technical and artistry. - Diva Mar 14, 10:01 2
        
        The notion of a "world record in figure skating" will never stop sounding odd to me. -- nm - Reagen Mar 14, 10:09 1
        
        agreeance - it doesn't jibe at all. Case in point - the way Patrick Chan was scored at the last Canadian Nationals. Even the Canadian commentators - Diva Mar 14, 10:12
      - Santorum's only chance is to keep gaining momentum and keep winning so that he's winning everything by the end. - Don Homer Mar 14, 09:48 16
        
        Santorum as a third party candidate is plausible if there isn't a brokered convention. -- nm - David Mar 14, 10:13
        
        on the other hand, Romney doesn't need to do much more than hold serve to keep the math in his favor. - znufrii Mar 14, 09:52 6
        
        But polling in Illinois doesn't give him the commanding win from what I saw. - Will Hunting Mar 14, 09:53 2
        
        which to me counts as holding serve. he continues his incremental progress towards eventually getting the magic number. -- nm - znufrii Mar 14, 09:58 1
        
        And he continues to move the needle on the "Romney is a default choice; not a chosen choice." - Will Hunting Mar 14, 10:02
        
        I don't see anything that suggests he could have a commanding win next week. -- nm - Don Homer Mar 14, 09:53 2
        
        A narrow win, sure. But not commanding. -- nm - Don Homer Mar 14, 09:53 1
        
        yes, I was simply speculating on a possible upside scenario for Romney. - znufrii Mar 14, 09:56
        
        The more Santorum wins in 2012, the better he'll look as a candidate for 2016. So, why should he even think of stopping now? - con_carne Mar 14, 09:50 7
        
        I suppose anything is possible, though I think this is his shot. If he doesn't win now, I don't know if I see - Don Homer Mar 14, 09:51
        
        I suppose I should say "anything is possible", but this is his only real shot. There are real Republicans waiting for 2016. -- nm - Reagen Mar 14, 09:51 4
        
        Though what is a "real Republican" these days? -- nm - Don Homer Mar 14, 09:52 3
        
        Given this group, guys who when you look at them don't make you giggle. -- nm - Will Hunting Mar 14, 09:54 2
        
        2016 will be interesting. There are a bunch of competent candidates, but I wonder which ones will appeal to the populist Republicans. -- nm - Roger More Mar 14, 10:05
        
        or scream in terror internally. - Mel Profit Mar 14, 10:02
        
        he's not the "next guy" for the GOP. this is his shot -- nm - pixitude Mar 14, 09:51

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The Perils of March polls - one set of O v. R and O v. S has Romney +2 and Obama +1:

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