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In response to
"A 7,300 PSA to a $6,500 (guesstimate) PSA isn't relatively the same? -- nm"
by
Inigo
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Let's be precise It's $7365 to a best case scenario of $6261.
Posted by
David (aka David)
Aug 25 '12, 11:59
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And here is what I said about the situation on Thursday:
"On an entirely different note, I am getting emails not just from readers but also from multiple members of the BOP staff regarding Obama�s America 2016. As is ordinarily the case with subjects like this, I will provide some analysis that is as neutral as I can manage on the subject. If you are wondering where my bias would lie on the topic, I lean left. And by lean, I mean absurdly so. My score on those online political compasses probably gets me placed on some government watch lists. Of course, I also once publicly berated an eventual Second Lady so I was probably already on those watch lists already.
Now that the fine print is out of the way, here is the pertinent information on the subject that Fox News has been trumpeting over the past couple of days. Yes, Obama�s America 2016 did almost reach the top 12 last weekend. It managed this feat in only 169 locations. This weekend, it expands into 1,090 play dates in total. The timing of this is fortuitous for the reason mentioned above. This appears to be a lousy box office weekend.
What should we expect from Obama�s America 2016? Long time readers of the site are aware of Reagen Sulewski�s expansion rule. Films that go from smaller venue counts generally lose about 70% of their per-location average in the process. The reason for this is obvious. Heightened supply lessens demand. This is a basic economic principle. The per-location average of the Rocky Mountain Pictures release was $7,365 last weekend. 30% of this would be roughly $2,210. Multiplying that by 1,090 locations would be a total of $2.4 million.
There is a common sense aspect to this that the above does not address, though. $2.4 million isn�t even a million more than the film earned last weekend. Statistically, this would not cause any concern. Logically, the difference is that the mainstream media or at least the right wind elements of it have embraced this news story. This is tantamount to free advertising for the movie. As such, I would be inclined to disregard the normal rules at least a bit.
Even if Obama�s America 2016 earns the same $7,365 per location as last weekend, we would be talking about only about an $8 million Friday-Sunday. Splitting the difference strikes me as the safest approach here. I would note that the math on a prior Rocky Mountain Pictures release supports the per-location expansion rule, though.
Atlas Shrugged Part I had a per-location average of $5,640 in 299 exhibitions. It expanded to 465 theaters the following weekend. In the process, its per-location average fell 66% to $1,895. And we are not talking about a massive expansion in that example. Then again, Atlas Shrugged Part I was never a popular internet story the way that Obama�s America 2016 has been.
The logical inference being made by many is that this is the conservative equivalent to Fahrenheit 9/11. That movie earned at least $11 million in each of its first three weekends of box office. Its opening weekend per-location average was $27,558 in 868 theaters. There is a fairly significant difference of scale between the two projects. Rocky Mountain Pictures should claim a top 10 title this weekend, possibly even top five, but there does not appear to be the passion for this project that the left felt with Fahrenheit 9/11, at least not yet."
I was projecting $5.2 million. So this $6 million or so doesn't surprise me in the least. The only way I would have been surprised is it existed beyond the outliers. Yesterday's total would have put the movie in 9th place last Friday. The timing of the its performance along with the profound failure of others is why it is a story.
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