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So if RCP is biased, and their EC prediction is 303-235

Posted by Strongbad (aka Rambler14) Nov 5 '12, 12:34

In reality Obama should pull in around 330-340?

Responses:

RCP's numbers are not biased, I think they use about as unbiased a number model as you can get. - ty97 Nov 5, 12:54 5
- I wouldn't know anything about their commentary, I'm focused just on their numbers. Thanks. -- nm - Strongbad Nov 5, 12:57 4
  - I use them for the same and trust their numbers implicitly (as far as bias/non-bias goes) since they are aggregating/averaging. - ty97 Nov 5, 12:59 3
    - Then I think the main question to ask is what value is an average of polls? If you're just looking for a simple number to tell you who is up and who - Roger More, attempting re-entry Nov 5, 13:07 2
      - I would imagine they're a lot better for "is Candidate X doing better or worse than last week?" than for "will Candidate X win the election". -- nm - Ender Nov 5, 13:38
      - Heh - this was meant to go under SB's post below -- nm - Roger More, attempting re-entry Nov 5, 13:07
I wouldn't say biased, but RCP is a conservative site that strives to be objective. -- nm - Roger More, attempting re-entry Nov 5, 12:38 9
- In the same way Nate Silver is a liberal pundit that strives to be objective? -- nm - Strongbad Nov 5, 12:39 8
  - More or less. But Nate Silver specialises in statistics, while RCP is a news aggregator. On polling, does RCP do anything besides provide an average? -- nm - Roger More, attempting re-entry Nov 5, 12:47 1
    - That's basically all RCP is, an aggregator of recent polls. -- nm - Strongbad Nov 5, 12:48
  - They're both ufcked if the polls themselves are crap to begin with. -- nm - Ender Nov 5, 12:45 5
    - are they, do you think? -- nm - znufrii Nov 5, 13:09 1
      - I think a lot of the polls are making a lot of funny choices about Rep-Dem turnout that seem to be based on pure fantasy. We'll know for sure tomorrow. -- nm - Ender Nov 5, 13:36
    - [deleted]
    - Correct. -- nm - ty97 Nov 5, 12:54
    - Maybe Jim Cramer is right! -- nm - MDH Nov 5, 12:47

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So if RCP is biased, and their EC prediction is 303-235

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