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In response to "Deal or No deal is down to $1 and $1 million -- nm" by Gwaahjo

spoiler

Posted by nubby Oct 22 '08, 18:58

Swapping cases would improve his chances from 1/26 to 25/26.

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Responses:

no it wouldn't -- nm - dogbert183 Oct 22, 19:00 11
- this isn't the same as the monty hall paradox -- nm - dogbert183 Oct 22, 19:00 10
  - Unless there's something about it I'm not seeing (I don't watch the show), it is -- (link) - Reagen Oct 22, 19:02 8
    - My God, this deserves a Nobel Prize. -- nm - Mop Oct 22, 20:21
    - the difference is how you get down to two cases... - dogbert183 Oct 22, 19:10 5
      - but when he went from three to two cases, switching would still have improved his odds. - mafic Oct 22, 19:19 3
        
        though I suppose since he's the one choosing which case to open, it might not be the same as monty hall. regardless, the IM stands. -- nm - mafic Oct 22, 19:22 2
        
        re IM: the $1 case is irrelevent, it's just the other case at that point. (if it was the $5 or the $500,000 case the question would still be the same - dogbert183 Oct 22, 19:24 1
        
        yeah, but he's still no more likely to have picked anything but the $5 or $500,000 case 25 times. - mafic Oct 22, 19:33
      - Yeah, I see the difference now. - Reagen Oct 22, 19:14
    - There's a paragraph about DoND. -- nm - nubby Oct 22, 19:08
  - Yeah you're right. -- nm - nubby Oct 22, 19:01
oh ok, i get it -- nm - Gwaahjo Oct 22, 19:00
how? -- nm - Gwaahjo Oct 22, 18:59 2
- here -- (link) - nubby Oct 22, 19:00
- It's an extended version of the MOnty Hall Problem. -- nm - Reagen Oct 22, 18:59

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