ST Alpha - "Jack, I'm not saying that the expected value is lower than 416k, it's only an absolute "right decision" if you accept that the difference in outcomes " (Reading a Post)

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Jack, I'm not saying that the expected value is lower than 416k, it's only an absolute "right decision" if you accept that the difference in outcomes

Posted by musubi Oct 23 '08, 14:12

is neglible. There is no way you can say the outcome difference is negligible if you only have one shot at the money.

Responses:

[deleted] 40
- I suppose I could look at it this way: if someone handed me that money in cash, would I then spend it on a public thrill? - Max Oct 23, 14:17 19
  - [deleted] 18
    - I love the crazy. -- nm - Max Oct 23, 14:18
    - [deleted] 16
      - You're about to jump off a bridge. Either a strong bungee cord or a skinny thread is tied to your feet... -- nm - Dano School Musical 3 Oct 23, 14:21 15
        
        Except you're not going broke here if you pick the skinny rope. - Will Hunting Oct 23, 14:21 13
        
        so, my choice is basically $400,000 for sure. or a 50/50 for $1,000,000 or $1? - Danger Girl Oct 23, 14:29 12
        
        and then you'd SOO put the money into BORING things like treasury bills and BROWN cars. where's your joie de vivre!? -- nm - Max Oct 23, 14:31 10
        
        hey! look at my nick! i'm super risky and crazy! - Danger Girl Oct 23, 14:32 6
        
        [deleted]
        
        Your as edgy as Danger Mouse. Into the suburbs, safe queen! -- nm - Max Oct 23, 14:33 2
        
        (the above error makes me cry) -- nm - Max Oct 23, 14:34 1
        
        see, i just assume people are doing it on purpose now. it's a meme. i never think it's an accident. -- nm - Danger Girl Oct 23, 14:34
        
        BUt what about a million chances for fun? -- nm - Will Hunting Oct 23, 14:32 1
        
        not worth risking 400,000 for. -- nm - Danger Girl Oct 23, 14:32
        
        [deleted] 2
        
        I'd love to hear that blurted out from the audience during the decision. That or "Oh sixty nine." -- nm - Max Oct 23, 14:32 1
        
        [deleted]
        
        Yeah. -- nm - Will Hunting Oct 23, 14:30
        
        "Or, you can jump using whatever's in *this box*." -- nm - Monty Hall Oct 23, 14:21
- If one of you fuckers mentions Monty Hall, I'm taking a pole-axe to wiggum. -- nm - David Oct 23, 14:16 19
  - [deleted]
  - Seriously, it's all about the additional infomation given by opening the first door. (nm) - musubi Oct 23, 14:18 10
    - What bugs me about it is that you presume that people will consider that Monte will not willingly open the door with the car. In other words, he KNOWS - Trish Oct 23, 14:32 3
      - It doesn't matter if Monte knows. By opening a non-car door, it's information regardless. (nm) - musubi Oct 23, 14:37 1
        
        Yes, but that's only true if he opens a non-car door. He has to have advance info, because as Mara said, he's never opened the prize door. - Trish Oct 23, 14:42
      - Monte obviously knows. All those years on the show and he never opened the door with the grand prize. -- nm - mara Oct 23, 14:34
    - On Deal or No Deal, you pick a case and every other case except 1 is opened with $1M not revealed. If given the opportunity to swap cases, should you? -- nm - Dano School Musical 3 Oct 23, 14:23 5
      - [deleted] 4
        
        On deal or no deal, this is true, but not in the Monty Hall problem. (nm) - musubi Oct 23, 14:28 3
        
        i had a statistician explain this to me, it's pretty interesting. -- nm - Danger Girl Oct 23, 14:30
        
        [deleted] 1
        
        See David! It's "obvie"! (nm) - musubi Oct 23, 14:32
  - Monty Hall will give you the pole-axe....which door do you think it's behind? -- nm - Will Hunting Oct 23, 14:18 3
    - Quick, start playing Halo so that I can betray you. (nm) - David Oct 23, 14:19 2
      - When i get home this evening, I probably will play for a while - Will Hunting Oct 23, 14:20
      - The out of context connotations of this post make me laugh and laugh. -- nm - Max Oct 23, 14:20
  - [deleted]
  - Change Doors! -- nm - Dano School Musical 3 Oct 23, 14:16 1
    - heh - That's exactly what I thought of. ;) -- nm - Cuzzin Todd Oct 23, 14:18

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Jack, I'm not saying that the expected value is lower than 416k, it's only an absolute "right decision" if you accept that the difference in outcomes

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