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In response to
"RC, what do you think of Elizabeth Warren's chances? -- nm"
by
David
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Right now, I personally think she has a good shot at the nomination and a fair chance of being elected President if she ran.
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Take all this with a grain of salt. After all, at this time prior to the 2012 Presidential election, the conventional wisdom had all but crowned Rudy Giuliani as the victor over President Obama.
The progressive community in the Democratic party is very, very wary of Sec. Clinton. And they're desperately searching for a "real progressive" to step forward and run in the primary (if for no other reason than put Sec. Clinton on the spot on progressive issues).
That's totally understandable. Sec. Clinton is fairly progressive, but she doesn't fit well with the "progressive populist" mode of Sen. Warren -- or Sen. Sanders, Sen. Brown, or my boss.
Also, there is an undercurrent of concern (even outright fear) that Sen. Sanders jumps into the race. I can understand that, too. I think he tends to be rather strident and bombastic in a way that alienates people (even hardcore progressives), and he still has that "socialist" label attached to him.
So, if Sen. Warren runs, I think she wins if the hardcore conservatives in Congress mismanage their majority. If they alienate people, thus causing a progressive swing, Sen. Warren could easily win the primary. Even if there is no progressive swing, I think it would be a tough fight.
Then if she wins the primary, I think it's a dead heat between her and Gov. Jeb Bush. That would be a really tough matchup, but honestly could be one of the best Presidential elections in decades in terms of really getting issues out on the table for people to think about.
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