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In response to
"Anyone with and ESPN insider account want to cut and paste McShay's first mock draft? It's up now. Just curious. -- nm"
by
volnelk
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Of course.
Posted by
David (aka David)
Dec 17 '14, 10:06
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Marcus Mariota versus Jameis Winston will be the big draft discussion for the next four months (including their head-to-head matchup in the Oregon-Florida State national semifinal on Jan. 1). Both QBs have the potential to be great in the NFL, but both also come with warning signs.
That's the debate that kicks off our first mock draft for 2015, which projects all 32 first-round picks. It goes without saying that a lot will change between now and April 30, draft night, including the draft order, team needs (which will be affected not only by the final few weeks of the season and playoffs but also free agency) and the stocks of many of the top prospects. Some of the players included here are underclassmen who haven't yet decided whether they'll enter the 2015 draft, and there are some teams that could be undergoing regime changes in the coming weeks.
But this mock draft can serve as an early primer on where the draft board stands right now, and the prospects teams could be considering with their picks in 2015. (Note: I'd have included Georgia pass-rusher Leonard Floyd on here, but UGA coach Mark Richt said this week that Floyd would be returning to school.)
How will things play out? Here's our first mock draft for 2015.
(A note on the draft order: It is listed here as though the season ended today, with teams not currently in the playoff field ordered 1-20 based on record and the reverse strength-of-schedule tiebreaker used in the actual draft order. Teams 21-32 are then listed the same way.)
1
Marcus Mariota
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2-12)
COLLEGE: Oregon
Class: Jr
HT: 6-4
WT: 211
POS: QB
Analysis: Mariota is a dynamic athlete with excellent top-end speed. He is elite at throwing on the run. He has a quick and compact over-the-shoulder release, and he possesses excellent intangibles. The concern I have with him is that while he's good with his anticipation and accuracy when passing from inside the pocket (and he's gotten better at it this season), he isn't great -- and that's the most important quality for QBs transitioning to the NFL level. Is that enough of a risk for the Bucs, a team in serious need of a franchise quarterback, to pass on him? Maybe, or perhaps they would wind up giving Winston a higher grade. But I just can't see either of these guys sliding out of the top 10. This is as shallow of a draft at the QB position as I can remember -- at least in the past several years.
PLAYER CARD
2
Jameis Winston
Tennessee Titans (2-12)
COLLEGE: Florida State
Class: Soph
HT: 6-4
WT: 235
POS: QB
Analysis: Winston has all the tools to be great on the field as an NFL quarterback. He excels from inside the pocket, has prototypical size, can drive the ball downfield and to the outside hashes, and displays very good game-management skills and on-field leadership. But his off-field behavior to this point frightens me. The Titans and any team that considers drafting him are going to have to be comfortable with what they find when they look into his past, and with his psychological testing. But as I mentioned in the Mariota section, even if one or two teams that need a QB pass on either of these top two QBs, I don't think they all will. It's hard to envision either getting out of the top 10, at this point.
PLAYER CARD
3
Leonard Williams
Jacksonville Jaguars (2-12)
COLLEGE: USC
Class: Jr
HT: 6-5
WT: 290
POS: DE
Analysis: The Jaguars have a much bigger need on the offensive line than on the defensive line -- and overall, the defense is in much better shape than the offense -- but there's too much of a talent gap between the top D-linemen and top O-linemen prospects in this class, and the Jags could afford to get younger at the position with Red Bryant already 30 years old. Williams is the No. 1 prospect on our board, with excellent strength and speed for his size, and he'd fit as a 5-technique defensive end in Gus Bradley's scheme. The Jags could also go with an edge rusher here in Nebraska's Randy Gregory or Missouri's Shane Ray, or with a big-time playmaker at wide receiver in Alabama's Amari Cooper.
PLAYER CARD
4
Randy Gregory
Oakland Raiders (2-12)
COLLEGE: Nebraska
Class: Jr
HT: 6-6
WT: 245
POS: DE
Analysis: The Raiders need an edge rusher, and the presence of Gregory and Khalil Mack along the same front seven would create problems for opposing offensive lines for seasons to come. I actually have a slightly higher grade on Ray than I do Gregory, but Gregory has the length to be a better fit as a 4-3 right defensive end. He needs to add strength to succeed in the NFL, as right now he is lean and can get pushed around a bit against the run. But he is a very good pass-rusher with his lateral quickness and closing speed.
PLAYER CARD
5
Shane Ray
Washington Redskins (3-11)
COLLEGE: Missouri
Class: Jr
HT: 6-2
WT: 240
POS: DE
Analysis: The Redskins need a lot of help on defense, and in particular could use a legit pass-rusher with Brian Orakpo unable to stay healthy and Trent Murphy currently starting opposite Ryan Kerrigan. Ray would help immediately. I studied the Missouri defense on tape a lot during last season's draft process, and it was Ray who jumped out on tape as the most talented player on a front that included Kony Ealy and Michael Sam. He is an absolutely relentless pass-rusher who is tough, aggressive, can bend the end and has an explosive first step. He's also versatile and has improved his ability to convert speed to power.
PLAYER CARD
6
Amari Cooper
New York Jets (3-11)
COLLEGE: Alabama
Class: Jr
HT: 6-1
WT: 205
POS: WR
Analysis: In this scenario, Mariota and Winston are already off the board. The Jets are desperate enough to find a franchise quarterback that they could trade up a few spots to draft either player if they fall in love with one, but if they're stuck at this spot, I think they should take the best player available in Cooper. They need O-line help, but the top-rated prospect on my board, Brandon Scherff from Iowa, is best-suited to play guard at the next level. He'll be a great one for a long time, but the No. 6 overall pick is a steep price to pay for a great guard. Percy Harvin provides no guarantees, and Cooper would be an upgrade over Eric Decker, who is really best-suited to be a No. 3 WR. He'd provide a great target for whenever the Jets find their guy at QB.
PLAYER CARD
7
Dante Fowler Jr.
Atlanta Falcons (5-9)
COLLEGE: Florida
Class: Jr
HT: 6-2
WT: 271
POS: DE
Analysis: There's a drop-off in talent after the first six prospects, so no matter which player I assign to the Falcons it feels like a reach. I'm also not going to lose too much sleep over which pass-rusher I place here on Dec. 17, since the Falcons still have a chance to win the NFC South and wind up picking in the 20s. Fowler has the size, quickness, power and relentless motor you look for in a defensive end. He also has experience playing all along the D-line, including occasionally dropping into underneath zone coverage, and that versatility adds to his value.
PLAYER CARD
8
Vic Beasley
New York Giants (5-9)
COLLEGE: Clemson
Class: Sr
HT: 6-2
WT: 220
POS: DE
Analysis: Iowa's Brandon Scherff would be a consideration here, given the Giants' needs along the O-line, but they'd have to be convinced he's a tackle and not a guard (I think he's a guard) to justify taking him at No. 8 overall. The defense has shown improvement in the second half of the season, but it needs another legitimate pass-rushing threat to complement Jason Pierre-Paul (who is a free agent this offseason), and Beasley is a difference-maker in that role. His first-step quickness and closing speed are near elite. He plays bigger than his size, but he's still only 220-230 pounds, so he may fit better as a SLB and when turned loose as a pass-rusher.
PLAYER CARD
9
Landon Collins
Chicago Bears (5-9)
COLLEGE: Alabama
Class: Jr
HT: 6-0
WT: 212
POS: S
Analysis: Safety was a need area for Chicago in last year's draft, and the Bears didn't address the position until the fourth round when they selected Brock Vereen. He's a solid player, but certainly not the talent that Collins is. Collins is a very impressive athlete for the safety position, with a strong, compact build, quick feet, and good length and leaping ability. He's a good open-field tackler, possesses good ball skills and plays with an edge. The Bears need all the help they can get on defense.
PLAYER CARD
10
Brandon Scherff
Carolina Panthers (5-8-1)
COLLEGE: Iowa
Class: Sr
HT: 6-4
WT: 320
POS: OT
Analysis: Scherff reminds me a lot of Zack Martin, the Cowboys' first-round pick at No. 16 overall in the 2014 draft, in that he could be a good starting right tackle in the NFL or a great starting guard. He possesses excellent strength and toughness, and is perfectly wired for life as an NFL offensive lineman. The Panthers really need to get better in pass protection for QB Cam Newton, as they haven't done well this year following Jordan Gross' 2013 retirement. Byron Bell has been just decent at left tackle, and right tackle has been a problem area with Nate Chandler and now David Foucault.
PLAYER CARD
11
Cedric Ogbuehi
Minnesota Vikings (6-8)
COLLEGE: Texas A&M
Class: Sr
HT: 6-5
WT: 300
POS: OT
Analysis: This is probably a little earlier than Ogbuehi should go based on where I have him graded right now, due to some of his inconsistencies this season, but offensive tackles with his talent have a tendency to rise during the draft process and don't last long on the board. He needs to become more polished, but he has size, long arms and quick feet, and he'd upgrade the Vikings at right tackle.
PLAYER CARD
12
Ereck Flowers
St. Louis Rams (6-8)
COLLEGE: Miami (FL)
Class: Jr
HT: 6-6
WT: 325
POS: OT
Analysis: The Rams need a QB, but there isn't one worth drafting here in this scenario. They also need a cornerback, but it's too early to take Oregon's Ifo Ekpre-Olomu, Washington's Marcus Peters or Michigan State's Trae Waynes. Flowers is under the radar right now but he'll be well-known by April. His pad level is an issue, but he has a massive frame, moves well and is a finisher.
PLAYER CARD
13
Devante Parker
Houston Texans (7-7)
COLLEGE: Louisville
Class: Sr
HT: 6-2
WT: 207
POS: WR
Analysis: The Texans are another team looking for a franchise quarterback, but they won't find one at this spot. They could consider Washington nose tackle Danny Shelton, but I'll give them Parker here. He'd provide Houston with a lot more juice in three-receiver sets early in his career, and could eventually take over as a starter once Andre Johnson's time is up. Parker has a good combination of size and speed with good separation skills and the ability to run under the deep ball and make over-the-shoulder grabs.
PLAYER CARD
14
Danny Shelton
Cleveland Browns (7-7)
COLLEGE: Washington
Class: Sr
HT: 6-1
WT: 332
POS: DT
Analysis: Cleveland is too soft against the run, ranking 31st in the NFL by allowing 137.6 rushing yards per game. Shelton would help fix that problem, as he's a great fit at nose tackle and can add depth along the Browns' entire three-man front. He has a thick and powerful frame to occupy blockers, along with very impressive quickness for his size.
PLAYER CARD
15
Devin Funchess
San Francisco 49ers (7-7)
COLLEGE: Michigan
Class: Jr
HT: 6-4
WT: 235
POS: WR
Analysis: The Niners could look to address their offensive line or defensive front with their first-round pick, but Colin Kaepernick needs a big target to help him out and Funchess fits the bill. He has a huge catching radius and is a downfield threat because of his combination of size and speed. He's also shown the ability to gain yards after the catch with his elusiveness and strength.
PLAYER CARD
16
Shaq Thompson
Miami Dolphins (7-7)
COLLEGE: Washington
Class: Jr
HT: 6-2
WT: 224
POS: OLB
Analysis: The Dolphins could afford to add a wide receiver with size, like West Virginia's Kevin White (6-foot-3) or Arizona State's Jaelen Strong (6-4), but they can address that need in Round 2. Thompson is a unique talent with an outstanding combination of size, speed and athleticism, and he could help upgrade Miami at linebacker. He is very good in coverage and can defend the run sideline-to-sideline.
PLAYER CARD
17
Kevin White
Kansas City Chiefs (8-6)
COLLEGE: West Virginia
Class: Sr
HT: 6-2
WT: 211
POS: WR
Analysis: It's Week 16, and the Chiefs still haven't had a wide receiver record a touchdown catch this season. White would upgrade the receiving corps with his excellent size-and-speed combo. He still needs to develop as a route runner but is a natural when it comes to separating from coverage when the ball is in the air. White is also dangerous after the catch, which adds to his value for a team in need of perimeter playmakers.
PLAYER CARD
18
Eddie Goldman
San Diego Chargers (8-6)
COLLEGE: Florida State
Class: Jr
HT: 6-3
WT: 315
POS: DT
Analysis: Goldman would provide a boost to the Chargers' defensive line, particularly against the run, which is where he really stands out. He is thick and powerful with good movement skills for his size, and he shows the ability to work through double-teams. From what I've seen in person and on tape this season, he might be the best player on FSU's defense. He'd be a good value here.
PLAYER CARD
19
Jaelen Strong
Cleveland Browns (7-7)
COLLEGE: Arizona State
Class: Jr
HT: 6-3
WT: 212
POS: WR
Note: This pick is traded from the Bills.
Analysis: The Browns passed on several opportunities to select a receiver in the WR-rich 2014 draft, but I've got them addressing that need here. Strong has excellent size for the position with a big catch radius and the ball skills to make contested catches in traffic. He'd provide an insurance policy for Cleveland in case the team again loses Josh Gordon, who has missed significant time due to suspensions the past two seasons.
PLAYER CARD
20
Trae Waynes
Philadelphia Eagles (9-5)
COLLEGE: Michigan State
Class: Jr
HT: 6-1
WT: 182
POS: CB
Analysis: The Eagles have been better on defense this season, but cornerback remains a position of need and Waynes would be a good fit. He has good length and speed for the corner position, and he's a sure tackler who isn't afraid to come up and assist in run support. His field awareness is very impressive as well.
PLAYER CARD
21
T J Clemmings
New Orleans Saints (6-8)
COLLEGE: Pittsburgh
Class: Sr
HT: 6-4
WT: 313
POS: OT
Analysis: There's no question the Saints could use help on defense given how bad they've been on that side of the ball this season, but Clemmings is a solid value here and they could afford to add some help along the offensive line. Clemmings has a high ceiling as a prospect because of his raw physical tools and the fact that he's still new to the position, having switched from defensive line to offensive line ahead of the 2013 season. He has an excellent combo of strength, length and quickness.
PLAYER CARD
22
Malcom Brown
Pittsburgh Steelers (9-5)
COLLEGE: Texas
Class: Sr
HT: 6-3
WT: 317
POS: DT
Analysis: The Steelers have largely been carried by their offense this season, and Brown's versatility would be an asset on the Pittsburgh D-line. He's played nose tackle, defensive tackle and defensive end in a 4-3 front and NT and DE in a 3-4 front for the Longhorns, so the Steelers would have options in how to employ him in Dick LeBeau's scheme. Brown is very disruptive with his strength-quickness combo, and he possesses a good motor.
PLAYER CARD
23
Melvin Gordon
Baltimore Ravens (9-5)
COLLEGE: Wisconsin
Class: Jr
HT: 6-0
WT: 207
POS: RB
Analysis: Gordon is a good value pick at this point, and he also matches a need for the Ravens. They've been decimated by injuries to the cornerback position this season, so they could look for help here, but Gordon is a particularly good fit because Baltimore is more of a zone-blocking team now under offensive coordinator Gary Kubiak, and Gordon is coming from a zone-blocking scheme at Wisconsin. He does a very good job of being patient for holes to open and then exploding through them with great acceleration.
PLAYER CARD
24
Andrus Peat
Cincinnati Bengals (9-4-1)
COLLEGE: Stanford
Class: Jr
HT: 6-6
WT: 315
POS: OT
Analysis: We've moved Peat down our board a bit this season, but he still has the ideal physical tools to be a starting left tackle in the NFL, with good length, a powerful upper body and very good agility in pass protection. He'd provide a boost to the Cincinnati offensive line, whose current starting left tackle Andrew Whitworth is entering the final season of his contract.
PLAYER CARD
25
Kevin Johnson
Dallas Cowboys (10-4)
COLLEGE: Wake Forest
Class: Sr
HT: 6-0
WT: 175
POS: CB
Analysis: The Dallas defense held up better this season with the help of a dominant running game and ball-control offense, but corner is still a position of need for the Cowboys. Former first-round pick Morris Claiborne was benched this season prior to his season-ending injury, and the Cowboys could use an infusion of youth and talent at the position. Johnson doesn't have elite physical traits, but he's fast and fluid enough as an athlete to keep up with most receivers and is physical and aggressive as a press corner despite his lean frame and shorter arms. His instincts and awareness are excellent.
PLAYER CARD
26
Marcus Peters
Detroit Lions (10-4)
COLLEGE: Washington
Class: Jr
HT: 5-11
WT: 193
POS: CB
Analysis: It seems like every draft season we discuss the Lions' need for a cornerback, and this year is no different. Peters was dismissed from the UW program midseason after being held out multiple times for team rules violations, so teams will need to be comfortable with his character and intangibles to draft him. But as a talent he has what you're looking for, with very good athleticism and prototypical size for the position.
PLAYER CARD
27
La'El Collins
Indianapolis Colts (10-4)
COLLEGE: LSU
Class: Sr
HT: 6-4
WT: 324
POS: OT
Analysis: The Colts need to do a better job of protecting QB Andrew Luck, as he's taken a lot of hits this season, and finding a way to establish more of a running game should be a priority as well. Collins would help in both areas. He is massive at 6-4, 324 pounds, and projects as either a right tackle or guard in the NFL, as he is just average in pass protection but shows very good burst, strength and toughness as a run-blocker.
PLAYER CARD
28
Benardrick McKinney
Green Bay Packers (10-4)
COLLEGE: Mississippi State
Class: Jr
HT: 6-4
WT: 243
POS: ILB
Analysis: The Packers' lack of athleticism at interior linebacker required them to move Clay Matthews there earlier this season, so McKinney would fill a need. He has very good speed and closing burst for his size, and while he isn't a huge hitter in general, he has the strength to occasionally deliver a big blow. He also flashes upside as a pass-rusher.
PLAYER CARD
29
Todd Gurley
Seattle Seahawks (10-4)
COLLEGE: Georgia
Class: Jr
HT: 6-0
WT: 230
POS: RB
Analysis: The Seahawks need help along the offensive and defensive lines, and could also look to upgrade at the tight end position. But at this spot, Gurley (assuming Seattle's doctors were comfortable with his recovery from his torn ACL) would provide high upside as a value pick. Scouts I've spoken to considered Gurley a potential top 10-to-20 pick prior to his injury, because of his combination of tremendous power and breakaway speed. Marshawn Lynch has only one year left on his contract after this season, and isn't a lock to be on the roster for 2015. The closest NFL comparison I can come up with for Gurley is Lynch.
PLAYER CARD
30
Bud Dupree
Arizona Cardinals (11-3)
COLLEGE: Kentucky
Class: Sr
HT: 6-3
WT: 268
POS: OLB
Analysis: Arizona's quarterback situation has been complicated by Carson Palmer tearing his ACL the same week he signed a contract extension with the team, but the Cardinals aren't going to find a solution at this spot, even if they're looking for one. Dupree is a bit of a tweener but projects best as a 3-4 outside linebacker, making him a good fit for Arizona's scheme at a position of need. He is an outstanding athlete for his size, with very good speed and redirect skills.
PLAYER CARD
31
A J Cann
New England Patriots (11-3)
COLLEGE: South Carolina
Class: Sr
HT: 6-3
WT: 315
POS: OG
Analysis: It would make sense for the Patriots to target a pass-catcher here. I considered Ohio State WR Devin Smith, and either Michigan WR/TE Devin Funchess or Arizona State WR Jaelen Strong would have been a good choice, were they available. But Cann is a good pick at this spot. Dan Connolly and Ryan Wendell each have one year left on their contracts, but Cann is capable of starting right away if needed and would be a good long-term replacement for either one. He isn't elite athletically, nor is he overpowering at the point of attack, but he has good quickness, agility and balance and fares well as a run-blocker and in pass protection.
PLAYER CARD
32
Denzel Perryman
Denver Broncos (11-3)
COLLEGE: Miami (FL)
Class: Sr
HT: 5-11
WT: 248
POS: ILB
Analysis: The Broncos have dealt with several injuries at the linebacker position this season, and Perryman is a good value at this spot. I've been really impressed with what I've seen from him on tape; he's a very good tackler with the ability to deliver a big hit, above-average range versus the run and good anticipation and diagnostic skills.
PLAYER CARD
Top five prospects still available:
1. Ifo Ekpre-Olomu, CB, Oregon Ducks
2. Mike Bennett, DT, Ohio State Buckeyes
3. Tevin Coleman, RB, Indiana Hoosiers
4. Devin Smith, WR, Ohio State Buckeyes
5. Trey Flowers, DE, Arkansas Razorbacks
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