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I understand what you're worried about, but Iraq is very different to Russia.

It had a majority population that had long been repressed by a minority. It didnt have any institutions that were respected by the population. And the military was wiped out by an invading army.

While Russia (on paper at least) has a succession plan, and some form of democratic institutions - media, courts, legislature, etc - that would be involved in guiding its future.

I think the worst case would probably be something like Egypt where another strongman with a military/security background rises up after a time to keep the vested interests happy. Best case is something like Tunisia, (which is probably the only country better off from the Arab Spring)


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