fwiw, your 2015 Kentucky Derby notes.....
Posted by
x (aka dmuck)
May 1 '15, 06:36
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this is coming out of a word doc., so i hope it formats OK. if i had to pick one of the big choices at this point, i'd be all over Bayern. but he'll be no value....for outsiders right now, I'm sort of leaning towards Frosted, Upstart and I really loved how Mubtaahij ran on Dubai World Cup day.
1 Ocho Ocho Ocho Jim Cassidy Elvis Trujillo 50-1
A long shot who may have done his best running as a two year old, it's possible this one is in over his head here. Winner of three races his freshman year, his 2015 efforts so far have been fairly lackluster though they earned enough to gain entry. Needs to step up and show that he has class enough to match what he's facing today.
2 Carpe Diem Todd Pletcher John Velazquez 8-1
Brilliantly bred and able to adjust to differing pace scenarios, Carpe Diem is a fascinating prospect. With going away wins in the Tampa Bay Derby and the Blue Grass, he has shown great ability so far in prep races and comes into Churchill as a compelling choice. Sired by Giant's Causeway he should have no trouble with the distance and his April works at Keeneland were sharp as hell. Could be ready to run big.
3 Materiality Todd Pletcher Javier Castellano 12-1
Unraced at two, this colt has gone 3-for-3 in 2015 and had a big time win in the Florida Derby. While the mile and a quarter is unlikely to be trouble--his old man, Afleet Alex, won the Preakness and Belmont--the new prospect of the Derby is of some concern. Had no trouble competing in smaller fields and getting up front early, but there's a lot of speed in here. Inside post seems OK, but is he quick enough to get to the front? We'll see when the gate opens.
4 Tencendur George Weaver Manny Franco 30-1
On one hand, Tencendur seems like maybe somewhat of a one run plodder who is slightly overmatched in this field full of nifty speedsters. On the other, he did run a nice second in the Wood with a reasonably high speed figure and had a blazing bullet work at Churchill on April 25. An outsider for sure, but maybe his back of the pack style fits nice here if there's any early action that burns out some of the more highly regarded. Tough to make a strong case for, but also hard to chuck out.
5 Danzig Moon Mark Casse Julien Leparoux 30-1
This colt seems of interest, as his last two preps seem to show some consistent progress--if not quite any Great Leap Forward. Should get a nice trip here to settle in, save ground and make a run at the end in hopes that everything falls apart up front. Needs to really step up and show he's competitive with others of this calibre, however, as his 1 win in 5 lifetime starts is not what you'd like to see at this point. Might mature here, or might never make the grade.
6 Mubtaahij Mike de Kock Christophe Soumillon 20-1
In general it's a tough ask for these young foreign horses who come out of Dubai World Cup to ship to Kentucky and fare well in races that are run in a much different style than they are used to. That said, it's hard to imagine that eventually one of these colts from the land of the Darley and Godolphin Arabian won't rise up and make their ancestors proud. His win in the Meydan may well have been against lesser than he'll see today but was still a massive, easy win. Tossing out winners of the UAE Derby is often good counsel the first Saturday in May--but will it always be so?
7 El Kabeir John Terranova Calvin Borel 30-1
Some things here are hard to fault: the win at Churchill Downs last November, the firsts in the Jerome and Gotham on the road here and the lifetime record of 8 finishes in the money in 9 starts. Still and all, the speed figures don't show a ton of improve and the third last out against better in the Wood might not bode well. A fast pace scenario he can close into might help, and he might get that. Some reason for optimism.
8 Dortmund Bob Baffert Martin Garcia 3-1
You'll notice Dortmund in the paddock, as he is a HUGE colt that has looked just about as spiffy as you'd like your thoroughbred to look on the week leading up to the Derby. Not to mention: he's undefeated in 6 lifetime starts, has improved speed figures-wise in every single race of his career and is sired by Derby and Preakness winner Big Brown. Toss in experienced trainer Baffert, high quality jock Garcia and it's not hard to see a winning combo. A real player.
9 Bolo Carla Gaines Rafael Bejarano 30-1
After two straight wins over turf, Bolo was switched to dirt in hopes that he'd prove a versatile enough performer to become a Derby prospect. Did well enough to be that, but it remains to be seen if he can be more. Did not really improve on the surface; though thirds in the San Felipe and Santa Anita Derbys are not so poor as to make him a tossout. Still think he might be best on the grass but would not want to count him out.
10 Firing Line Simon Callaghan Gary Stevens 12-1
Lots to like with a colt that has 3 wins and two 2 seconds in 5 starts and who seems to get better every time out. The but: in two starts against Dortmund he's been looked in the eye twice and got bested both times. Has worked lousy in the run up but that's nothing to worry about--he's a slowpoke trainer near all the time. His 2 best career starts have come off of long layoffs and he hasn't had a race since March 22, so if you believe in rhythm then maybe this is your jam. Live wire.
11 Stanford Todd Pletcher Florent Geroux 30-1
Hm. Tough to shake the feeling that this Pletcher entry isn't more of a sprinter than a router as his best career races top out at 6 furlongs. The good is that he's very game and has run second twice and first once in the last 3 out, and worked like a dream over the Churchill strip. The bad? He seems to have been tiring at the end of his last 2 races and neither of those is as long as this one. In with a chance but will need to show something new.
12 International Star Mike Maker Miguel Mena 20-1
3 straight graded stakes wins speak well for him and are not to be discounted; yet it seems fair to wonder about the competition in those contests and to cast aspersions based on the low speed figs rendered in those victories. Still, he's run 9 races and has finished 1st or 2nd 7 times--so there's that. Not an entry who inspires huge confidence, but there's a lingering wonder. Can he find himself on the day that really counts? Maybe.
13 Itsaknockout Todd Pletcher Luis Saez 30-1
Placed first in the Fountain of Youth after being interfered with in the stretch, this Pletcher entry then followed that good effort with an uninspiring fourth in the Florida Derby. Looked there to perhaps not have class enough to compete at this level, but we’ll see. Has worked well at Churchill of late, so should at least handle the track. Not to be discounted but needs a return to form.
14 Keen Ice Dale Romans Kent Desoremeaux 50-1
Should likely be the one that goes off at the longest odds at post time, given that in 5 graded stakes the best finish he can claim is a measly third in the Remsen way back in November. His low speed figures don't help in trying to make a case for him, either, as they are middling and not really moving forward. Maybe about the best you can say is that his sire, Curlin, was a star router who won the Dubai World Cup, so the connections must be hoping the extra distance today changes things. It'll have to.
15 Frosted Kiaran McLaughlin Joel Rosario 15-1
A really interesting entry who's had some health issues that affected his training, Frosted comes in today with the highest speed rating for his last race in today's field. Winner of the Wood seems also to have drawn a post that fits him perfectly--since he's in the auxiliary gate, he'll have a little extra room to maneuver and should drop to the rail to save ground and wait to make one big run. Might regress after his last race, but if he moves forward instead then watch out. Worth considering.
16 War Story Tom Amoss Joe Talamo 50-1
A deep closer bred for the classic distance, War Story has finished in the money in 3 straight graded stakes but hasn't won any. Not outmatched in this field, but the fact that he isn't getting up either is a worry. Broke his maiden at Churchill in 2014 and has been working fine here too, so you at least know he likes the track. Will need to really show something new if he hopes to surprise today. Stranger things have happened.
17 Mr. Z D. Wayne Lukas Ramon Vazquez 50-1
You could make a case that maybe it'd be better if this horse wasn't entered at all and some have done so; the fact that he's lost 11 straight races makes it unlikely that he's coming home first. But he's battle tested and game, so maybe it's not just a D. Wayne vanity project and he can hang around long enough to pick up a piece of the action. Yet another entrant with a previous win at Churchill, he'll have to be at his best here again to make an impression. Not great prospects, but not hopeless.
18 American Pharaoh Bob Baffert Victor Espinoza 5-2
Well, one of Bob Baffert's charges will go off as the favorite so will it be Bayern or this one, stuck on the outside? The post here really isn't that much of a concern given this colt's style--since he's a quick horse that needs to go to the front, being out here beats getting stuck down inside. Has done nothing wrong all year, winning four straight races in easy fashion
while barely breaking a sweat. Blindingly fast works lately show that he's razor sharp and primed to go. Big chance.
19 Upstart Rick Violette Jr. Jose Ortiz 15-1
Was really looking strong until failing as the first choice in the Florida Derby, where he was stared down by Materiality in the stretch. Yet there's much to recommend here: good works, nearly always competitive and loaded with class. An outsized effort that matched his potential would put him right in the mix, and it's well within his ability to win a race like this. A live longshot.
20 Far Right Ron Moquett Mike Smith 30-1
Unfortunately this horse's name matches what he got for a post position, as he's stuck in the rightmost slot in the field. His pedigree doesn't suggest he'll take to the extra distance, for the most part, and so he begins the race at a disadvantage. Was impressive winning the Southwest Stakes and did place in the Arkansas Derby, though that was about 8 lengths behind American Pharaoh. Has also run well in four career races at Churchill Downs so should be comfortable out there. Will need to show a new gear when the bell rings.
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