ST Alpha - "Star Wars is going to crush Avatar's OW, no doubts there, but not a chance, imo, for total gross. -- nm" (Reading a Post)

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Star Wars is going to crush Avatar's OW, no doubts there, but not a chance, imo, for total gross. -- nm

Posted by Shaun (aka bigshaunu) Nov 9 '15, 11:13

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Responses:

Mrs Disney and I rarely go to movies in theatres anymore because of Princess Disney. We will find a way for Star Wars in its first week... - Walt_Disney Nov 9, 11:51 2
- I think it's a given that people nostalgic for the original trilogy will come out in droves. The question is more about the newer generations. - Inigo Nov 9, 11:53 1
  - Judging by the animated properties and toy sales, yes. -- nm - TWuG Nov 9, 11:55
If it can do $200ish o.w that's only a 3.5ish multiplier to beat Avatar -- nm - jangles Nov 9, 11:20
I think the opening weekend record is probably safe, but Avatar is in jeopardy. -- nm - Inigo Nov 9, 11:18 25
- Worldwide, sure. Domestic? I doubt it. -- nm - David Nov 9, 11:24 24
  - $2.78 billion isn't happening worldwide. $760 million has a much better shot stateside. -- (edited) - Inigo Nov 9, 11:28 23
    - I think you're exactly backwards on this. That's what makes these discussions fun. -- nm - David Nov 9, 11:30 22
      - The Phantom Menace made $450 million or so internationally (prior to the re-release), Revenge of the Sith made $468 million overseas. - Inigo Nov 9, 11:36 10
        
        i fully expect this to way outperform Phantom Menace (even taking inflation, etc into account). -- nm - Andie Nov 9, 11:43 1
        
        Me too, but way outperform TPM, and making $2.8 billion are two different planets. -- nm - Inigo Nov 9, 11:48
        
        Because the marketplace exploded. Now, absolute garbage can earn half a billion. - David Nov 9, 11:41 7
        
        Sure, but that's just it. Jurassic World was an enormous hit. Yet it only made $1 billion overseas. -- (edited) - Inigo Nov 9, 11:46 2
        
        I'm not "expecting" anything. I'm discussing permutations. See below. - David Nov 9, 11:57 1
        
        To be clear, by problems in China I'm thinking they'll have to deal with $150 million there instead of $250 million. -- (edited) - Inigo Nov 9, 12:02
        
        Jurassic World's *billion* still leaves it about 1 billion short of Avatar. - Will Hunting Nov 9, 11:46 3
        
        You're preaching to the choir, but I'm slotting Star Wars at $550M domestic and $1.5B overseas. - David Nov 9, 11:54 2
        
        I can get behind those #'2...which still leaves it a Passion of the Christ short overall. -- nm - Will Hunting Nov 9, 11:56 1
        
        Oh, I always expect Star Wars films to be shorts. - David Nov 9, 11:58
      - And you are both incorrect as it will wipe the records out. - Spawn Nov 9, 11:33 10
        
        yup. -- nm - Remlik Nov 9, 11:38 1
        
        Gotta agree with the Indiana boys here -- nm - eag Nov 9, 11:44
        
        Oh, honey. -- nm - David Nov 9, 11:33 7
        
        It amuses me that for someone that makes a living off of movies, you continue to fail to see which way the wind is blowing. - Spawn Nov 9, 11:50 6
        
        Fine, let's make a wager. I'll buy you a Star Wars blu-ray if beats Avatar domestically. You buy me a Vudu movie when (err, "if") it doesn't. -- nm - David Nov 9, 11:53 5
        
        I would have to check and see if we have a blu-ray player! - Spawn Nov 9, 12:05 3
        
        Fine, I'll get you a $20 Fandango gift card. You'll get me the Vudu film of my choice. -- nm - David Nov 9, 12:11
        
        you do! the xbox! -- nm - Remlik Nov 9, 12:05 1
        
        and adjust the deal for the Peanuts Blu ray -- nm - Remlik Nov 9, 12:06
        
        It's a trap! He's going to buy you TPM! -- nm - Shaun Nov 9, 11:55
Worldwide or Domestic? -- nm - eag Nov 9, 11:18 13
- Worldwide is even less likely than domestic. - Will Hunting Nov 9, 11:24 12
  - Star Wars 7 has original cast members. That overcomes a lot of the ill taste of the prequels. -- nm - Remlik Nov 9, 11:44 7
    - More to the point of what I'm saying: You can take the 3rd largest movie ever (Jurassic World) and add it to the 12th (RotK) and still be a million - Will Hunting Nov 9, 11:56 3
      - IF Star Wars is good, you will have a shitload of people who will be seeing it 4,5,6 times at the theater. - groiny Nov 9, 12:04 1
        
        Right. But until December 28th or so, we won't know a) that it's good or b) that people care. - Will Hunting Nov 9, 12:08
      - it's a tough hill to climb no doubt. But if any film can do it....it's gonna be this one. -- nm - Remlik Nov 9, 12:02
    - totally one-person's-anecdote - i had no interest, at all, in the prequels, I already have tickets for this one. - Andie Nov 9, 11:45 2
      - did you like 4,5,6? -- nm - Remlik Nov 9, 11:50 1
        
        i love the original, i like Empire and Jedi. -- nm - Andie Nov 9, 12:01
  - Have to disagree. Star Wars is easily translatable, since it's always relied heavily on visuals/sound/music/universal themes rather than specific myth -- nm - con_carne Nov 9, 11:36
  - To a certain extent, Star Wars is why there is global box office. - David Nov 9, 11:27
  - Worldwide ain't happening. China doesn't even know what a Star Wars is yet. -- nm - Inigo Nov 9, 11:26 1
    - then who's making all those crappy toys?????....nm - x Nov 9, 11:50
OTOH, if the forgettable Avatar can earn so much money, then who's to say a new Star Wars movie cannot? -- nm - Roger More Nov 9, 11:17 19
- Avatar might be forgettable now, but at the time it was revolutionary in advancing the tech of movies. - Will Hunting Nov 9, 11:21 18
  - It is a sequel to the franchise that began the trend you speak of. -- nm - Spawn Nov 9, 11:34 1
    - I really wish we could go back to HSX's boards in April 1999. - Will Hunting Nov 9, 11:47
  - I can't walk 3 blocks without seeing something Star Wars related..... - groiny Nov 9, 11:26 13
    - You should change your walking patterns, because that's billboard Hell. -- nm - David Nov 9, 11:32 1
      - it is not even billboards, it is merchandise everywhere. -- nm - groiny Nov 9, 11:33
    - You couldn't in 1999 either. It didn't even break the opening weekend record in a favorable calendar frame. -- nm - Will Hunting Nov 9, 11:27 10
      - that was a completely different animal. nm -- nm - groiny Nov 9, 11:28 9
        
        It really wasn't. If anything, we're seeing less absurdity. No one's camping out yet. - Will Hunting Nov 9, 11:29 8
        
        no, now we have advanced ticket sales, which are off the charts. - groiny Nov 9, 11:32 7
        
        right, no need to camp out. You buy your tickets,.with reserved seating, and just show up. -- nm - Andie Nov 9, 11:37 6
        
        Reserved seating would be so excellent. -- nm - Shaun Nov 9, 11:48 5
        
        you don't have any with reserved seats? No AVX? -- nm - Andie Nov 9, 11:48 4
        
        We only got it a few months ago. I can't go back now that I can have it. -- nm - David Nov 9, 11:52
        
        *blank stare* - Shaun Nov 9, 11:51 2
        
        Mostly all of the projectors are digital now, iirc, but there's nothing new and shiny aside from that. -- nm - Shaun Nov 9, 12:05
        
        ahhh -- nm - Andie Nov 9, 12:02
  - It's the first SW movie in 30 years with the original trilogy characters and storylines, that's a trial game changer -- nm - jangles Nov 9, 11:23
  - I thought it was forgettable then, too. Fern Gully in space. -- nm - Beryllium Nov 9, 11:21
Right. -- nm - David Nov 9, 11:14

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