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Is this reasoning sound? 1. The internet makes it easier to get spoiled about new movies. 2. One reason to go opening weekend is to reduce the odds of

Posted by mara Dec 19 '15, 08:07

getting spoiled.
3. Thus, the internet is helping to create bigger opening weekends.
4. Some movies have more repeat business than others.
5. Some movies will have poorer legs when conditions are such that people *do* want to avoid spoilers but it's *not* going to get much repeat business.
6. HSX's multiplier is getting less accurate because it was formulated before the internet (esp Twitter and Facebook) made spoilage so likely.

(I'm thinking it's not very sound because I think there's almost always a pretty strong correlation between the movie that people don't want to be spoiled about and the movie that gets a good amount of repeat business, so point 5 is pretty much irrelevent.)

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Responses:

I agree point 5 doesn't work. Basically, good movies have good legs and bad movies have poor legs. - Roger More Dec 19, 08:38
3 works both ways. Good movies get higher internal multiples and bad ones get lower ones due to WOM. -- nm - iSpam Dec 19, 08:27
I think point 3 is true, but for a multitude of reasons, not just this one -- nm - Beryllium Dec 19, 08:20 1
- e.g., competition from other entertainment sources/streaming and to a certain extent piracy - Beryllium Dec 19, 08:40

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Is this reasoning sound? 1. The internet makes it easier to get spoiled about new movies. 2. One reason to go opening weekend is to reduce the odds of

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