ST Alpha - "Repeat to yourself that national polls mean nothing right now. " (Reading a Post)

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Repeat to yourself that national polls mean nothing right now.

Posted by iSpam (aka spamlet) Jan 26 '16, 07:53

Especially right now a week before Iowa.

Responses:

I for one welcome our new Trump Overlord - Epiphany Jan 26, 08:03
Do Iowa polls even mean anything? - Strongbad Jan 26, 08:01 25
- What intrigues me about Iowa is the folks who are not polling for Trump - who is there #2 choice? - ty97 Jan 26, 08:07 23
  - Right - Strongbad Jan 26, 08:12 17
    - This is the first time I'd say Trump is the nominee over Rubio. - Will Hunting Jan 26, 08:15 7
      - The real question is how much of his "support" is actually a paper tiger that won't actually show up at the polls. -- nm - Ender Jan 26, 08:21 5
        
        I personally would love to see his epic meltdown if he finishes 2nd in Iowa - Strongbad Jan 26, 08:23 3
        
        He has a;ready called the people of Iowa stupid etc, so he would just laugh it off. -- nm - Spawn Jan 26, 08:28
        
        "You're all losers. You voted for Huckabee and Santorum! I'm glad I'm not your choice!" -- nm - Will Hunting Jan 26, 08:25 1
        
        "Iowa is a LOSER state that won't even exist in 5 years!!!" -- nm - Ender Jan 26, 08:27
        
        This is very true as well. - Will Hunting Jan 26, 08:23
      - Not so fast! -- nm - Pataki Jan 26, 08:17
    - Assuming the money holds, Jeb's gonna stay in until the south tells him he's wasted his time.* - David Jan 26, 08:14 8
      - I think at best, he's done after South Carolina. -- nm - Will Hunting Jan 26, 08:15 7
        
        This is my guess. He won't have a single Top 3 finish including SC. -- nm - Strongbad Jan 26, 08:17
        
        The popularity polling data against him thus far is truly staggering. - David Jan 26, 08:17 5
        
        I can't put my finger on it but there's something about him that makes me want to punch a baby sloth. - Mel Profit Jan 26, 08:20 4
        
        It's strange watching this unfold. - David Jan 26, 08:23 2
        
        Jeb! is so awful on the campaign I can't figure out how he was Gov. of Fl. - Mel Profit Jan 26, 08:28
        
        I think Jeb would be fairing as a better candidate today if it wasn't for W's 8 years. -- nm - Strongbad Jan 26, 08:25
        
        Family get togethers have to be awkward right now. -- nm - Reagen Jan 26, 08:23
  - Exactly right. -- nm - David Jan 26, 08:10 4
    - The whole concept of caucuses is bizarre to me, and I think I dislike them, but I can't help but be intrigued. -- nm - ty97 Jan 26, 08:11 3
      - do you understand them better than the opera though ? -- nm - decline Jan 26, 08:12 2
        
        I understand vagina better than I understand the opera. -- nm - ty97 Jan 26, 08:13 1
        
        Indeed. -- (link) - Spawn Jan 26, 08:15
- So much depends on the screening process for the poll. Gallup got out of the presidential polling business for a reason. -- nm - Ender Jan 26, 08:05
All things being equal, would you rather be the guy up by more than double or one of the rest? - David Jan 26, 07:54 10
- Since results flip after Iowa the underdog is in as good a position as anyone. -- nm - Max Jan 26, 08:01
- but they're not equal is my point. - iSpam Jan 26, 07:56 8
  - Your point isn't well founded is my point. You're comparing relatively close races against one with a clear frontrunner. -- nm - David Jan 26, 07:59 7
    - And if the Republican primary was a one day national voting, it would be a great indicator but that's not how it works. - spamlet Jan 26, 08:03 6
      - First of all, I wish it were anything but true. Second of all, I believe you guys are falling victim to belief in a historical behavior no longer in p - David Jan 26, 08:08 5
        
        FYI, offshore wagering odds - Strongbad Jan 26, 08:16 2
        
        And that Trump # is a lot of "Logic says this shouldn't have a prayer of happening, but that's been the last 7 months...." -- nm - Will Hunting Jan 26, 08:19
        
        That's actually very reasonable all the way around. - David Jan 26, 08:19
        
        Could it be that David has learned from his Star Wars: The Force Awakens experience!?! -- nm - Spawn Jan 26, 08:13 1
        
        I'd rather have the right logic and the wrong outcome than vice versa. -- nm - David Jan 26, 08:15
Ted? -- nm - Spawn Jan 26, 07:54
For instance -- (link) - iSpam Jan 26, 07:54 2
- very true, but in contrast, when was the last time a front runner was up 22+ points at this stage of the game? -- nm - decline Jan 26, 07:57
- Add up three of those four in combination and the lead doesn't reach this one. -- nm - David Jan 26, 07:55

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Repeat to yourself that national polls mean nothing right now.

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