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In response to "Repeat to yourself that national polls mean nothing right now. " by iSpam

Do Iowa polls even mean anything?

Posted by Strongbad (aka Rambler14) Jan 26 '16, 08:01

Polls this week show 300,000 Iowans are voting in the Iowa Caucuses.

That's about a 200% voter increase from the highest Iowa Caucus turnout ever back in 2008.

The most voters we've had in a primary (which always has higher turnout) in Iowa this century is only 230,000. And our last U.S. Senate primary had only roughly 150,000 voters in 2014.

There are actually 11,000 fewer registered Republicans in Iowa this January than in January 2015.

Responses:

What intrigues me about Iowa is the folks who are not polling for Trump - who is there #2 choice? - ty97 Jan 26, 08:07 23
- Right - Strongbad Jan 26, 08:12 17
  - This is the first time I'd say Trump is the nominee over Rubio. - Will Hunting Jan 26, 08:15 7
    - The real question is how much of his "support" is actually a paper tiger that won't actually show up at the polls. -- nm - Ender Jan 26, 08:21 5
      - I personally would love to see his epic meltdown if he finishes 2nd in Iowa - Strongbad Jan 26, 08:23 3
        
        He has a;ready called the people of Iowa stupid etc, so he would just laugh it off. -- nm - Spawn Jan 26, 08:28
        
        "You're all losers. You voted for Huckabee and Santorum! I'm glad I'm not your choice!" -- nm - Will Hunting Jan 26, 08:25 1
        
        "Iowa is a LOSER state that won't even exist in 5 years!!!" -- nm - Ender Jan 26, 08:27
      - This is very true as well. - Will Hunting Jan 26, 08:23
    - Not so fast! -- nm - Pataki Jan 26, 08:17
  - Assuming the money holds, Jeb's gonna stay in until the south tells him he's wasted his time.* - David Jan 26, 08:14 8
    - I think at best, he's done after South Carolina. -- nm - Will Hunting Jan 26, 08:15 7
      - This is my guess. He won't have a single Top 3 finish including SC. -- nm - Strongbad Jan 26, 08:17
      - The popularity polling data against him thus far is truly staggering. - David Jan 26, 08:17 5
        
        I can't put my finger on it but there's something about him that makes me want to punch a baby sloth. - Mel Profit Jan 26, 08:20 4
        
        It's strange watching this unfold. - David Jan 26, 08:23 2
        
        Jeb! is so awful on the campaign I can't figure out how he was Gov. of Fl. - Mel Profit Jan 26, 08:28
        
        I think Jeb would be fairing as a better candidate today if it wasn't for W's 8 years. -- nm - Strongbad Jan 26, 08:25
        
        Family get togethers have to be awkward right now. -- nm - Reagen Jan 26, 08:23
- Exactly right. -- nm - David Jan 26, 08:10 4
  - The whole concept of caucuses is bizarre to me, and I think I dislike them, but I can't help but be intrigued. -- nm - ty97 Jan 26, 08:11 3
    - do you understand them better than the opera though ? -- nm - decline Jan 26, 08:12 2
      - I understand vagina better than I understand the opera. -- nm - ty97 Jan 26, 08:13 1
        
        Indeed. -- (link) - Spawn Jan 26, 08:15
So much depends on the screening process for the poll. Gallup got out of the presidential polling business for a reason. -- nm - Ender Jan 26, 08:05

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Do Iowa polls even mean anything?

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