ST Alpha - "First of all, I wish it were anything but true. Second of all, I believe you guys are falling victim to belief in a historical behavior no longer in p" (Reading a Post)

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In response to "And if the Republican primary was a one day national voting, it would be a great indicator but that's not how it works." by spamlet

First of all, I wish it were anything but true. Second of all, I believe you guys are falling victim to belief in a historical behavior no longer in p

Posted by David (aka David) Jan 26 '16, 08:08

Historically, Iowa and NH caused certain behaviors. In 2016, people have been running for president for the body of a year. National opinions have formed. The bump the winner will receive by standing on the podium and looking/acting like a winner is real. It's modest relative to what's already transpired, though.

The GOP has a prohibitive favorite right now. That's just the truth of the matter. It doesn't assure he'll win since A) he's a blowhard idiot B) he's running on the Bigot ticket and C) a lot can happen. All of those factors are real. Saying that Howard Dean had a 6-point lead in 2004 is comically irrelevant.

Responses:

FYI, offshore wagering odds - Strongbad Jan 26, 08:16 2
- And that Trump # is a lot of "Logic says this shouldn't have a prayer of happening, but that's been the last 7 months...." -- nm - Will Hunting Jan 26, 08:19
- That's actually very reasonable all the way around. - David Jan 26, 08:19
Could it be that David has learned from his Star Wars: The Force Awakens experience!?! -- nm - Spawn Jan 26, 08:13 1
- I'd rather have the right logic and the wrong outcome than vice versa. -- nm - David Jan 26, 08:15

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First of all, I wish it were anything but true. Second of all, I believe you guys are falling victim to belief in a historical behavior no longer in p

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