I think it's about 60% he's the nominee at this point.
Posted by
Will Hunting (aka JoeMetz)
Feb 1 '16, 08:12
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if he wins Iowa and New Hampshire, it will all come down to how Rubio performs in NH.
If Rubio can do a strong 3rd in Iowa (looks likely as Cruz is flailing the last 2 weeks), and then a strong 2nd in New Hampshire (more iffy given Kasich and Cruz are still in the mix)... the establishment will likely be able to coalesce around Rubio as Christie, Bush and Kasich bow to reality.
That then puts this as a 3-man race given Cruz is getting pinata'ed by both guys and his own hubris but isn't in need of dropping out.
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The last few weeks, I actually have thought he's trying to tank his campaign as this gets more likely but all the stunts seem to work for him to win.
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Despite his intentions, I think he's in it till the end unless the establishment can rally around Marco. If they can't, he's it. If they do, he'll complain that he's been unfairly treated, step back to examine his options, and then after weeks of deliberation, announce he's not going to do a 3rd-party run because he wants a GOPer more than Hillary.
So, he gets to bow out, play the victim, but then ultimately the savior by keeping the GOP united*.
*well, as can be given the dynamics in play
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