Okay, looking at the results now, I'm back to 60/25/15 for Rubio / Trump / Cruz for the nomination.
Posted by
Will Hunting (aka JoeMetz)
Feb 2 '16, 05:50
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Big winner = Rubio. To get 2nd place delegates, to be very close to a voting 2nd place....that's a massive outperformance relative to his polling.
I expect New Hampshire to be the end for Kasich, Christie, and Jeb now as we should see a substantial consolidation in establishment voting behind Rubio.
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Big loser = Trump. There's no way to spin him being down 5-8% vs polls and barely holding onto a 2nd place vote total.
He's up 20+ in NH...I expect if he still wins in a week, that his margin of victory is less than 5%
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Cruz won so that's good, and he arrested his fall and had some excitement. He clearly did well enough to win, and had separation between him and Trump. Expectations were him losing, or at best squeaking out a win. A solid victory was not expected.
So in that respect he's a winner, but it's not exactly clear that he won late-breaking voters so that victory is more a flaw on Trump than Cruz riding a wave. So that's bad.
Now, he goes to a place that won't give his brand of politics as warm a welcome as Iowa did so we'll see if he can get hot.
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I'm back to Rubio as the nominee.
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