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In response to "Probably bad for Hillary if accurate (exit polls are notoriously meh) -- (link)" by ty97

Possibly bad for Hillary tonight if true -- (link)

Posted by ty97 Mar 15 '16, 14:22

(No message)

https://twitter.com/mmurraypolitics/status/709850623840227328 (twitter.com)

Responses:

Sigh, this does hurt Hillary. She needs at least 1 of IL/MO/OH, and that data doesn't look great. -- nm - MDH Mar 15, 14:55 73
- she'll get half or close to half of the delegates in all of those states, win or lose - pixie ninja Mar 15, 15:00 5
  - Oh she still comes out on top delgate wise, just needs some momentum going into the Bernie stretch. -- nm - MDH Mar 15, 15:07
  - I'm unclear on this, but aren't Ohio and Illinois winner take all for the Dems? I thought Dems were all proportional, but I'm - TWuG Mar 15, 15:02 3
    - There are no winner take all Dem states are winner take all just on the Rep side -- nm - eag Mar 15, 15:07
    - I thought someone said that no states were winner take all for the Democrats. I had to vote for delegates. -- nm - nic to be determined Mar 15, 15:04 1
      - It does appear that ALL Dem contests are proportional. Had to do a bit of digging to figure that out. - TWuG Mar 15, 15:07
- And Drumpf is beginning to run as if Bernie was the nominee. And if Bernie is he doesn't have a chance. - nic to be determined Mar 15, 14:58 66
  - And everything shows Bernie beating him. Both democrats beat him right now. -- nm - Krusty Mar 15, 15:10 43
    - If those are my choices I won't vote. -- nm - Bacon Mar 15, 15:20 25
      - You should always vote. Always. - Krusty Mar 15, 15:22 14
        
        I disagree. if someone isn't engaged, informed, doesn't get its importance, etc., I don't encourage voting. -- nm - b. Mar 15, 15:30 4
        
        There are plenty of people who are engaged but not informed, and they still vote. -- nm - Roger More Mar 15, 15:36 3
        
        sure, and there wasn't an "or" in there for me. I was saying what/when it is that I encourage. -- nm - b. Mar 15, 15:37 1
        
        Yeah, I pressed 'post' before completing my thought. -- nm - Roger More Mar 15, 15:41
        
        (So I tend to think that disengaged voters are also required to even things out a bit. But I'm from a country that has compulsory voting and things - Roger More Mar 15, 15:37
        
        I will vote, I will not vote for president if it's between Sanders and Trump. -- nm - Bacon Mar 15, 15:23 8
        
        to what end? look at their platforms and pick. -- nm - andie Mar 15, 15:28 7
        
        I hate both platforms. HATE!! I won't pick between two people that are going to send the economy into a trainwreck. - Bacon Mar 15, 15:30 2
        
        alrighty, this I don't get. there are distinct differences. it's not choosing from two of the exact same. - b. Mar 15, 15:33 1
        
        They are both extremes and I like moderation. It makes perfect sense to me. -- nm - Bacon Mar 15, 15:34
        
        If nothing else, vote third part as a protest but don't not vote. -- nm - ty97 Mar 15, 15:29 3
        
        Okay, now you have something. I could vote for the Libertarian or Green Party. Yes I can do that -- nm - Bacon Mar 15, 15:31 1
        
        I honestly forget that there are more that two parties on every pres race. -- nm - Bacon Mar 15, 15:32
        
        sure -- nm - andie Mar 15, 15:31
      - then Drumpf wins. -- nm - Remlik Mar 15, 15:21 9
        
        Oh well. -- nm - Bacon Mar 15, 15:22 8
        
        you realize that the president can actually affect your own personal future? -- nm - andie Mar 15, 15:30 7
        
        I will vote for president like Ty suggested. Libertarian most likely -- nm - Bacon Mar 15, 15:31 6
        
        If Bernie were to be elected, worst case scenario is that he accomplishes next to nothing. He might increase some regulations, but he'll never pass - pmb Mar 15, 15:44
        
        I'm all for protest votes under some circumstances; but when my vote could really make a difference, I'm not throwing it away that way. - b. Mar 15, 15:34 4
        
        But is Oregon really much of a swing state? I would not protest vote in a swing state, but I have protest voted in non-swing states. -- nm - ty97 Mar 15, 15:36 2
        
        "when my vote could really make a difference" -- nm - b. Mar 15, 15:38
        
        We are full of swingers here. Oh nm misunderstanding -- nm - Bacon Mar 15, 15:37
        
        Sanders vs. Trump, might be the year a third party wins. That is the ugliest choice in decades. -- nm - Bacon Mar 15, 15:35
    - See pixie's post below. -- nm - nic to be determined Mar 15, 15:12 16
      - He would need Reagan like numbers of white people to beat the democrats and that is far from likely. - Krusty Mar 15, 15:13 15
        
        Yeah, America loves a socialist.... -- nm - ty97 Mar 15, 15:18 14
        
        Right now a lot of us do and the numbers say a lot of us like him more than any of the opposition in the other party. -- nm - Krusty Mar 15, 15:21 12
        
        America also doesn't know the difference between a socialist and a communist. America is not very bright. -- nm - Krusty Mar 15, 15:23 1
        
        On this, no. -- nm - nic to be determined Mar 15, 15:48
        
        Bernie would lose the general. I hate it, but it's true. America simply isn't ready for that yet. - ty97 Mar 15, 15:23 9
        
        Exactly it's way way to far of a leap from where we are now -- nm - Bacon Mar 15, 15:25
        
        This is what I've been saying for a while, Bernie supporters just don't get *it.* The GOP view of him is/will be vile. -- nm - MDH Mar 15, 15:24 1
        
        It will. And what''-his-name is already calling Bernie a communist and accusing him of sending violent protestors to his rallies. -- nm - nic to be determined Mar 15, 15:27
        
        This is a fact despite what the numbers say today? -- nm - Krusty Mar 15, 15:24 5
        
        Read down thread, head to head numbers now are absolutely meaningless. -- nm - ty97 Mar 15, 15:25 3
        
        So you're basing this on your feeling that America won't vote for him despite what they're saying today. - Krusty Mar 15, 15:27 2
        
        No, I'm basing this on the history of the accuracy of general election polls at this point in the past, and conversations I've had with swing voters. - ty97 Mar 15, 15:30
        
        Head to head #s when nominees aren't decided are always bad stats. This is polling 101. -- nm - MDH Mar 15, 15:29
        
        head to head numbers don't matter right now. -- nm - MDH Mar 15, 15:24
        
        And remember, we don't know *who* the opposition will be. Don't assume Trump. -- nm - ty97 Mar 15, 15:18
  - doesn't every poll (right now) say Sanders would beat Trump? -- nm - Andie Mar 15, 14:59 21
    - This far out polls are worthless. Not one debate yet. No VP picked yet -- nm - Bacon Mar 15, 15:21
    - Well, in total numbers. They don't take the electoral college into account, though. -- nm - mara Mar 15, 15:17
    - There aren't enough white men and racists alive for Trump to win enough electoral votes. -- nm - David Mar 15, 15:12
    - Yup -- nm - Krusty Mar 15, 15:11
    - Any head to head poll is meaningless right now. -- nm - MDH Mar 15, 15:06
    - sure. because the GOP and the media haven't even begun to smear him in earnest yet -- nm - pixie ninja Mar 15, 15:01 15
      - That won't bother him. He's dealt with the name calling and questioning of his ideas many times. He has thick enough skin to handle it all. -- nm - Krusty Mar 15, 15:15 13
        
        Im still concern about that - eag Mar 15, 15:25
        
        You do realize Bernie will be looked at the way Dems look at Cuccinelli, Trump, Bachman etc. right? -- nm - MDH Mar 15, 15:23 6
        
        I don't see it that way and he's taken much more seriously than any of them. - Krusty Mar 15, 15:24 5
        
        You know how you view the Tea Party? That's how non-liberals (not just uberconservatives) view Bernie. - ty97 Mar 15, 15:29
        
        No it's really not. They already HATE Warren and he is left of her. I want to win the Presidency, not lose. Trust me if Bernie could win, I'm there. -- nm - MDH Mar 15, 15:25 3
        
        Who is they? The republican voters or the independent voters? Because the only ones that really matter are the independents and I'd like to see where - Krusty Mar 15, 15:28 2
        
        Unfortunately, we won't get any accurate read on that until both candidates are known and the vetting/attacking starts. - ty97 Mar 15, 15:33 1
        
        If the democrats can get out the voters they would have a hard time losing any election. -- nm - Krusty Mar 15, 15:38
        
        History shows that head to head polling at this point is meaningless. That's all we need to know. -- nm - ty97 Mar 15, 15:19
        
        Doesn't matter if it bothers him. The question is how will it influence voters. -- nm - mara Mar 15, 15:18 2
        
        His retort will matter and influence the voters. What I'm saying is I don't think he'll be flustered by the name calling and will reply well. -- nm - Krusty Mar 15, 15:26 1
        
        And what everyone else is saying is that it won't matter how he replies. You think people actually care? - MDH Mar 15, 15:28
        
        it's not how he would handle it. the power structure of America will never let him become president. ever. - pixie ninja Mar 15, 15:17
      - Yeah I fear if Bernie is the nominee then Trump wins in November -- nm - eag Mar 15, 15:03
Like I said below. Tons of dems showing out to slow Trump. -- nm - Volnelk Mar 15, 14:29 5
- stupid if true - pixie ninja Mar 15, 14:31 2
  - they should be voting for him so he gets the Republican nod -- nm* - Beaker Mar 15, 14:33 1
    - he's doing just fine with that on his own -- nm - pixie ninja Mar 15, 14:33
- Are you sure they're not out voting for Trump? -- nm - The Death Sceire Mar 15, 14:30
- Which it won't if Bernie wins the nomination. -- nm - nic to be determined Mar 15, 14:30

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