Bust or not? 2006 NFL Draft edition.
Posted by
David (aka David)
Apr 13 '09, 12:32
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Mike Florio wrote something interesting!
In our collective obsession with each year's draft, we rarely if ever devote much time to the scrutiny of past drafts.
It isn't enough to reevaluate a draft one year later. Three years are needed to fully assess whether a draft pick is a bust or not.
So let's rewind to 2006 and look at the careers of the men taken in Round 1. Here's the only ground rule: The higher the player was picked, the greater the expectations.
1. Mario Williams, defensive end, Texans: After a so-so rookie season, Williams has developed into a solid player. Though he's not yet (and might never be) as good as Reggie White (then again, who is?), he's the best player to emerge from the top 10. Verdict (for now): Not a bust.
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2. Reggie Bush, running back, Saints: The expectations for Bush couldn't have been much higher. It was widely presumed he would be the first-overall selection, and if it weren't for a late-April controversy regarding allegations of free rent for his parents, Bush might well have been the Texans' pick.
The Katrina-ravaged Saints viewed Bush's availability at No. 2 as a gift from above. Though he has been solid as a receiver and occasionally spectacular as a one-cut punt returner, Bush has not lived up to his expectations and probably never will. Verdict: Bust.
3. Vince Young, quarterback, Titans: He took the league by storm as a rookie, helping the Titans dig out of an early-season hole and nearly propelling them to a playoff berth. Young's performance earned him offensive rookie of the year honors and landed him on the cover of Madden 2008.
Then things went south for the former Longhorn. He was so-so as a sophomore, and he landed on the bench in a haze of injury and emotional instability last season. He enters 2009 as the backup to an aging quarterback who isn't among the best 16 signal-callers in the league. Though Young might have a chance to turn his career around at some point, he has to date been a failure. Verdict (for now): Bust.
4. D'Brickashaw Ferguson, tackle, Jets: There's a belief in league circles that solid left tackles are found only in one place: the first 10 picks in the draft. Ferguson hasn't made the Pro Bowl, but he also isn't among the fairly sparse group of top-10 tackles who flame out in the NFL. Verdict (for now): Not a bust.
5. A.J. Hawk, linebacker, Packers: He hasn't become a dominant presence, but he has started every game in three seasons for the Packers. Green Bay's shift to a 3-4 could cause Hawk to struggle initially, but in the end he could emerge as an even better player. Verdict (for now): Not a bust.
6. Vernon Davis, tight end, 49ers: One of the most-hyped players in the 2006 draft, Davis hasn't played to the level his pre-draft workout numbers seemed to promise. If Davis had been taken later in the round, his numbers through three seasons (103 catches, 1,132 yards, nine touchdowns) might have been enough to earn him the "not a bust" label. However, more is expected from top-10 picks. Verdict (for now): Bust.
7. Michael Huff, safety, Raiders: When a team as bad as the Raiders puts a top-10 pick on the trading block in his second NFL season and can't find a taker, it's not a good sign. Verdict: Bust.
8. Donte Whitner, safety, Bills: The Bills were criticized for drafting Whitner with the eighth overall pick�some draft observers called it a clear reach. But Whitner has played well through three seasons. Though a recent arrest could be the start of a troubling trend, Whitner has done enough to justify his selection. Verdict (for now): Not a bust.
9. Ernie Sims, linebacker, Lions: Sims has provided one of the few bright spots for a franchise that hasn't seen many since Barry Sanders retired. Sims has started every game in his career with Detroit, and he has somehow maintained his sanity. Verdict: Not a bust.
10. Matt Leinart, quarterback, Cardinals: The jury was out on Leinart after two seasons. There was an awkward revolving-door approach in 2007�Leinart was routinely pulled from games for Kurt Warner and then re-inserted after Warner led the team back into the lead. The platoon ended when Leinart broke his collarbone and missed the rest of the season. Last year was supposed to be Leinart's make-or-break campaign.
In late August, he broke.
Coach Ken Whisenhunt opted to bench Leinart for Warner, and Warner responded with an MVP-caliber season that nearly resulted in a Super Bowl title. With Warner signed for two more years, Leinart's window of opportunity in Arizona has likely closed forever. Verdict: Bust.
11. Jay Cutler, quarterback, Broncos (now with Bears): Cutler was a solid starter in Denver, throwing for more than 4,500 yards last season. Though his time with the Broncos ended in a cloud of acrimony, the fact that he garnered two first-round picks, a third-round pick and a former fourth-rounder (Kyle Orton) confirms Cutler's value. Verdict: Not a bust.
12. Haloti Ngata, defensive tackle, Ravens: Ngata has been a force in the middle for the Ravens, starting every game of his three-year career and coming of age in 2008 with a season that should have resulted in a Pro-Bowl nod. Verdict: Not a bust.
13. Kamerion Wimbley, linebacker, Browns: Largely overlooked on an overmatched defense, Wimbley's numbers suggest he could soon become a perennial Pro Bowler. His sacks have dropped since he recorded 11 as a rookie, but he has appeared in every game and remains one of the rare bright spots for a defense that has disappeared too often in recent seasons. Verdict: Not a bust.
14. Brodrick Bunkley, defensive tackle, Eagles: After failing to crack the starting lineup his rookie season, Bunkley has become a consistent contributor, starting 31 of 32 games in 2007 and 2008. Verdict: Not a bust.
15. Tye Hill, cornerback, Rams: Injuries have kept Hill from reaching his potential. After appearing in every game as a rookie, he has dressed for only 12 games the past two seasons. Verdict (for now): Bust.
16. Jason Allen, safety, Dolphins: If a guy can earn only nine starts during a 15-loss season, he's not good enough to be considered anything but a bust. Under the Bill Parcells regime, Allen has become a consistent backup, and that's not good enough for the 16th-overall pick. Verdict: Bust.
17. Chad Greenway, linebacker, Vikings: A preseason ACL tear wiped out his entire rookie year, but Greenway has recovered to become one of the league's best young linebackers. Verdict: Not a bust.
18. Bobby Carpenter, linebacker, Cowboys: One start in three seasons is all we need to know. Though he can still turn it around if he turns it on this year, Carpenter has failed to fulfill expectations. Verdict (for now): Bust.
19. Antonio Cromartie, cornerback, Chargers: A hip injury marred his third season, but he did more than enough in 2007 to justify the pick. Verdict: Not a bust.
20. Tamba Hali, defensive end, Chiefs: A solid player on a bad team, Hali could become better known if/when his team turns it around�and if he can make the transition to a 3-4. Verdict (for now): Not a bust.
21. Laurence Maroney, running back, Patriots: This was the toughest pick to evaluate. Because of the position he plays�and the team he plays for�Maroney has received plenty of press. But his numbers haven't been great, and he missed most of his third NFL season. After another year, we'll all have a better idea of Maroney's pro prospects. Verdict: Incomplete.
22. Manny Lawson, linebacker, 49ers: Here's another tough one. Lawson shot up draft boards late in the process, but his play hasn't justified his first-round selection. That said, he missed most of 2007 with an injury, and he reportedly was limited by injury for much of the 2008 season. A wait-and-see approach for one more season is fair. Verdict: Incomplete.
23. Davin Joseph, guard, Buccaneers: Joseph has gotten the job done at an unheralded position on a team that doesn't get a ton of national attention. He started every game in 2007 and would have started all 16 in 2008 if not for an injury that caused him to miss four games. Verdict: Not a bust.
24. Johnathan Joseph, cornerback, Bengals: He's another challenging player to judge. Joseph hasn't been great, but he hasn't been terrible. An arrest for marijuana possession tips the scales against him for the time being. Verdict (for now): Bust.
25. Santonio Holmes, receiver, Steelers: If not for a stellar 2008 postseason, this one would have been a closer call. The MVP trophy from Super Bowl 43 more than seals the deal. Verdict: Not a bust.
26. John McCargo, defensive tackle, Bills: The third member of the N.C. State defensive line to be drafted in 2006 (after Williams and Lawson) has to date been the lowest achiever. It has been so bad that the Bills tried to trade him last season, only to have him fail his physical with the Colts. Verdict: Bust.
27. DeAngelo Williams, running back, Panthers: Williams has become one of the best running backs in the league. His 20-touchdown performance in 2008 should have merited MVP consideration, but it didn't even get him to the Pro Bowl. Verdict: Not a bust.
28. Marcedes Lewis, tight end, Jaguars: A 16-game starter each of the past two seasons, Lewis has become a fairly solid contributor. He caught 41 passes for 489 yards in 2008, putting his production in the top 20 at the position. If he had been taken higher, he might be regarded as a bust. At No. 28, he gets the benefit of the doubt. Verdict (for now): Not a bust.
29. Nick Mangold, center, Jets: Mangold has been a starter from Week 1 of his rookie year, and it looks like he'll handle the middle of the Jets' offensive line for the next decade. Verdict: Not a bust.
30. Joseph Addai, running back, Colts: He made the folks in Indy quickly forget about Edgerrin James. Addai has been a major contributor on offense for his entire career. Verdict: Not a bust.
31. Kelly Jennings, cornerback, Seahawks: Here's a rule of thumb: If a cornerback taken in Round 1 isn't a full-time starter by Year 3, he's a bust. Verdict: Bust.
32. Mathias Kiwanuka, defensive end, Giants: He has ping-ponged between linebacker and defensive end, returning to the line in 2008 and starting every game. His eight sacks and otherwise solid play have helped justify what appeared to be a wasted pick when Kiwanuka's name was called. Verdict: Not a bust.
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