ST Alpha - "i'm flipping my prediction if he comes up even a delegate short of 1,237 before Cleveland" (Reading a Post)

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In response to "I need to see the full quote, but Trump apparently (on MSNBC today) said there has to be some form of punishment for women who have abortions -- (link)" by ty97

i'm flipping my prediction if he comes up even a delegate short of 1,237 before Cleveland

Posted by pixie ninja (aka chris) Mar 30 '16, 11:54

he's still a prohibitive favorite to reach that number but god help him in Cleveland if he doesn't

Responses:

I think he's tracking a bit short of 1237 currently actually. -- nm - ty97 Mar 30, 11:56 13
- it's fuzzy though because there are several hundred uncommitteds who, in theory, he could count on at the convention to put him over the top -- nm - pixie ninja Mar 30, 11:59 10
  - Not sure where you're getting "several" hundred from -- (edited) - znufrii Mar 30, 12:05 2
    - 161 so far? Or 161 total? Does that include PA's 54? -- nm - ty97 Mar 30, 12:11 1
      - 161 total, per Wikipedia, including PA and ND -- nm - znufrii Mar 30, 12:12
  - But aren't most of them, for lack of a better word, 'classic' GOP supporters. e.g. they are part of the system - ty97 Mar 30, 12:00 6
    - Do the numbers include the Christie and Carson delegates? Not that there are many of them, but they presumably move to Trump's camp. -- nm - pmb Mar 30, 12:08 3
      - Christie didn't win any, and only 5 of Carson's 8 have been released by their state. -- nm - znufrii Mar 30, 12:15 2
        
        Meanwhile, Rubio asked that his be restored to him. (I think Alaska has parsed his out) -- nm - ty97 Mar 30, 12:16 1
        
        Only 29 of his have been released anyway, according to Wikipedia. - znufrii Mar 30, 12:19
    - he can promise them literally *anything* -- nm - pixie ninja Mar 30, 12:00 1
      - I mean I guess it doesn't hurt to have 200 Secretaries of State. -- nm - ty97 Mar 30, 12:01
- 96% of his target at fivethirtyeight.com -- nm - znufrii Mar 30, 11:58 1
  - They have him landing at 1205 I think, though if the Marquette poll of WI is accurate (who know if it is) then he'd falls short of even that. - ty97 Mar 30, 11:59

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i'm flipping my prediction if he comes up even a delegate short of 1,237 before Cleveland

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