Honestly, I don't see the GOP winning in the fall given the strife.
Posted by
Will Hunting (aka JoeMetz)
Mar 31 '16, 09:56
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the assumption is that if Trump is the nominee, he loses 90% of the time. I'd like to say higher, but he's like a cockroach; dead and buried many times over.
If he doesn't get to 1237, then I'd say it's only like 1/3 that he's the nominee and if he's not; his supporters are going to be fragmented to hell and back. And he's still got like 35% of the GOP primary voters in his column.
He could run as a 3rd party spoiler which would invariably harm the nominee...or the GOP could run a viable 3rd party candidate on the banner of a nominal party (the Constitution Party would probably love the chance to get qualified for future ballots by having a name)..)...the Libertarians with Gary Johnson could sneak 5%....
You'd have the basic equivalent of a party in a 2-party nation punting on leading 2/3 of the government (given the USSC is in the balance as well).
There are going to be books written about this that make Game Change and 2008 look positively straightforward and unmemorable.
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