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Something I picked up from the 538 election podcast yesterday: When polls first close, if a network calls a state immediately

Posted by ty97 Apr 26 '16, 14:33

then the exits probably show +12 or more. Under that, they tend to wait for some returns to come in to validate the exits.

Which shows how much you should (not) trust exits.

Responses:

Bernie better hope the early exits are wrong - dj fingerblast Apr 26, 14:48 9
- And yeah, although MD was always going to a very strong state for Hillary, those exits, if they hold, are super ugly for Bernie there. -- nm - ty97 Apr 26, 15:11
- exits were atrocious last week so I'm putting little stock in them as a measure our % - ty97 Apr 26, 14:49 7
  - that was just one state, these are across the board in multiple states - dj fingerblast Apr 26, 14:51 6
    - exits in 2004 said that Kerry was President. -- nm - ty97 Apr 26, 14:56 5
      - depending on who you believe in Ohio . . . - dj fingerblast Apr 26, 15:01 3
        
        Man, that must mean the Democrats haven't actually lost an election since Carter, right? -- nm* - Strongbad Apr 26, 15:22 2
        
        no? -- nm - dj fingerblast Apr 26, 16:04
        
        Since when? -- nm - Walter Mondale Apr 26, 15:26
      - I'm not saying these exits are wrong, I'm just saying I'm waiting for votes :) -- nm - ty97 Apr 26, 14:58
You should totally do your own elections podcast. -- nm - ReluctantCynic Apr 26, 14:45 2
- ~Talkin' about issues, Talkin' about real important issues. Talkin' it up!~ -- nm - Max Apr 26, 14:52 1
  - Taxes, more and more taxes -- nm - Colenel Sanders Apr 26, 14:56

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Something I picked up from the 538 election podcast yesterday: When polls first close, if a network calls a state immediately

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