ST Alpha - "I'm fascinated by the narrative that people will flip their vote for President based on a local VP candidate on the ticket." (Reading a Post)

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In response to "My real fear is that Trump manages to convince Kasich to be his running mate. " by Jovian

I'm fascinated by the narrative that people will flip their vote for President based on a local VP candidate on the ticket.

Posted by David (aka David) Jun 9 '16, 10:02

"Trump's an incompetent businessman and a racist, but if he's got Kasich on the ticket..."

Responses:

According to at least one academic study, the VP nominee influences a bit less than 1% of voters, but ... - ReluctantCynic Jun 9, 10:30 2
- Obama won Ohio by 2.98%, so... -- nm - David Jun 9, 10:32 1
  - Emphasis on "can have an effect in a swing state," not "will always have an effect in a swing state." - ReluctantCynic Jun 9, 10:36
I think VP matters a lot to Trump. More so than most others in recent decades. His voters need to trust that a replacement is available in the wings. -- nm - Name Withheld by Request Jun 9, 10:03 25
- Also because everyone is secretly hoping for murder. -- nm - mafic Jun 9, 10:11
- Right exactly. I think its his first and most important decision to make. -- nm - Jovian Jun 9, 10:05
- I think it's the opposite. It's like saying you care about the undercard of a Mike Tyson fight. -- nm - David Jun 9, 10:04 22
  - Trump can't win with chaos voters alone. He needs some moderates who need to justify their vote. -- nm - Name Withheld by Request Jun 9, 10:05 21
    - I don't think so. The Trump campaign could pull enough new and newly resurgent white voters to win. - ReluctantCynic Jun 9, 10:43
    - You could have stopped after three words. -- nm - David Jun 9, 10:12 17
      - While low percentage, the path exists because Democrats also nominated their highest-unfavourables candidate in generations too. -- nm - Name Withheld by Request Jun 9, 10:19 16
        
        And those numbers will NEVER change -- nm - senor dentista Jun 9, 10:23
        
        Sure, it could happen, but it's like going to Vegas with ten bucks and coming back a millionaire. -- nm - David Jun 9, 10:22 14
        
        It's probably about 4-1 right now based on a sample of online gambling sites. -- nm - Name Withheld by Request Jun 9, 10:30 7
        
        Then bet every dollar you have on Hillary while the odds are that out of whack with reality. -- nm - David Jun 9, 10:34 6
        
        *bookmarked for reference in a few months* -- nm - Name Withheld by Request Jun 9, 10:37 5
        
        "no comeuppance" -- nm - David Jun 9, 10:43
        
        speaking of, what were the terms of your bets with SB and znu? -- nm - Roger More Jun 9, 10:40 3
        
        25 beans apiece. Each has chosen to donate it to the Canadian Heart & Stroke Society. -- nm - Name Withheld by Request Jun 9, 10:42 2
        
        Thanks - I wasn't sure who had bet on what. -- nm - Roger More Jun 9, 10:45 1
        
        In 2014 they took Hillary for the nomination. I took "The Field". I'd still make that bet again. She was beatable. -- nm - Name Withheld by Request Jun 9, 10:54
        
        So you're telling me there's a chance... -- nm - Strongbad Jun 9, 10:26 4
        
        It's the logic that built casinos that look like cathedrals. - David Jun 9, 10:30 3
        
        Gambling is fun when you're playing against other players, not the House - Strongbad Jun 9, 10:32 2
        
        *rawr* -- nm - znufrii, dad. Jun 9, 10:35
        
        Unless you're playing at a Trump casino. House goes broke frequently there. -- nm - Will Hunting Jun 9, 10:33
        
        *bets it all on Leicester City* -- nm - znufrii, dad. Jun 9, 10:24
    - right, he desperately needs an 'anti-Palin' -- nm - Jovian Jun 9, 10:11
    - And people who think he might only serve one term and want the VP to be a viable candidate. Or, hey, he might be impeached! -- nm - mara Jun 9, 10:07

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I'm fascinated by the narrative that people will flip their vote for President based on a local VP candidate on the ticket.

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