JackDawson, re your polling observation on the backboard, I went ahead and did a quick and dirty number crunch
Posted by
znufrii, dad. (aka znufrii)
Aug 31 '16, 09:24
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Extrapolating a national number from the 538 state projections, using 2012's turnout numbers for each state.
Their national polls project a 4.8% Clinton victory, but the state polls predict a 5.6% margin, nationally. I won't venture to guess how statistically significant that difference is, but it certainly seems to support your observations.
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