ST Alpha - "you're missing the point" (Reading a Post)

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In response to "LIR: David, how about we make a bet on Gostkowski?" by ReluctantCynic

you're missing the point

Posted by ML (aka Iadodger) Aug 31 '16, 11:10

I was playing devil's advocate the other day so let me be real today.

The issue isn't how many points a guy scores. If that was the case then QBs would dominate the early rounds in our drafts. The issue is a comparative one. It's competitive advantage. How many expected points does player X score at the position vs. others at the same position.

Going only by Yahoo expected points only (a flawed metric, but it makes the point), Gostkowski is expected to score 20-25 more points over the course of the *entire season* than the 12th-ranked kicker. That's 1 or 2 points a game on average.

Not only is it a waste of a draft pick to take a kicker early, it's a reason why we shouldn't have kickers at all.

Responses:

I agree with you on the point of not having kickers. I kind of like that. - ReluctantCynic Aug 31, 11:14 28
- There are numerous reasons why a 3rd WR is better than a kicker. - the wrong element, bad guy Aug 31, 11:25
- I actually agree with you on the points thing...however, Spawn said something yesterday that is pretty true. - Jim Aug 31, 11:21 7
  - Spawn lost value (and also marginal utility) this year - Reagen Aug 31, 11:25 6
    - 4 *back-up* QBs had been drafted at that point. -- nm - Spawn Aug 31, 11:32 5
      - I think only 3 backup QBs had been taken. - the wrong element, bad guy Aug 31, 11:41 1
        
        4, 3, either way, back-up players were being drafted. I drafted a player that will play *every* week except for the bye. - Spawn Aug 31, 11:45
      - backup QB is kinda critical, you don't want to scrap heap a backup if your starter gets hurt. -- nm - groiny Aug 31, 11:36 2
        
        12 team league? Most experts would say don't even draft one with such a small bench. -- nm - Spawn Aug 31, 11:40 1
        
        Most would also say that at least 3 of those QBs should be rostered. - the wrong element, bad guy Aug 31, 11:47
- 1) bye weeks 2) injuries and depth 3) marginal utility - Reagen Aug 31, 11:18
- You're being stubborn and contrarian, as is your wont. - David Aug 31, 11:16 17
  - I'm being stubborn only because I can't figure out the conventional wisdom which y'all keep repeating. - ReluctantCynic Aug 31, 11:28 6
    - since teams start 3 to 4 receivers, you will run out of playable receivers faster. - groiny Aug 31, 11:34 1
      - Yes, also, there is a decent chance a receiver is going to get hurt (so you'll need your bench), and the difference between who you can add from your - pmb Aug 31, 11:49
    - Last year you could have had Eric Decker and random kicker, instead of Gostkowski and Philly Brown. - Reagen Aug 31, 11:33 2
      - Okay -- this is an example that does make sense. And please understand I'm not saying "you have to draft a kicker if the spot is open." - ReluctantCynic Aug 31, 11:49 1
        
        In this league, we're not into "bench players" until the 8th round. -- nm - Reagen Aug 31, 11:50
    - I think I get it so let me ELI5 - oblique Aug 31, 11:30
  - I'm surprised someone hasn't come up with a fantasy football WAR to explain this exact point. -- nm - Inigo Aug 31, 11:19 9
    - I have won football leagues picking up a kicker frm the scrap pile every week. -- nm - groiny Aug 31, 11:25 8
      - taking the point further, the defense that went in the first round of this year's Astrodraft I picked up off waivers last year at the end of September -- nm - ML Aug 31, 11:26 7
        
        I am less inclined to gamble on defense, since they can get you killed with negative points. - groiny Aug 31, 11:28 6
        
        yeah, I saw the run starting so grabbed one a little earlier. Tricky when you are back-to-back and have to wait 20 some picks in between -- nm - Beaker Aug 31, 11:29 5
        
        exactly why I took Denver when I did, because I was not going to risk having to wait that long and hope.... - groiny Aug 31, 11:30 4
        
        fwiw, I was picking Denver with my pick next but you got them first. -- nm - Shaun Aug 31, 11:34 3
        
        and if they fell to me I was taking them too, so... -- nm - Beaker Aug 31, 11:45
        
        makes me feel good that I stole them from you. -- nm - groiny Aug 31, 11:37 1
        
        I hate my team already. -- nm - Shaun Aug 31, 11:37
Kicker's points should be rolled into D/ST or just ST, imo. -- nm - Inigo Aug 31, 11:13 1
- I agree with this, though I'm not in the league. It's special teams. That's what the ST stands for. -- nm - volnelk Aug 31, 11:20
(And while I can't publicly agree with ML on the topic of kickers, his point is...accurate.) - David Aug 31, 11:12 1
- The luck thing ties into something I was wondering. - the wrong element, bad guy Aug 31, 11:54

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