ST Alpha - "I'll panic when it's mid-October, we've had debates and she still sits under 60% to win." (Reading a Post)

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I'll panic when it's mid-October, we've had debates and she still sits under 60% to win.

Posted by TWuG Sep 23 '16, 05:40

Obama's low point was Oct 12, just after the first debate where he was widely scene as having had a bad showing.

Things improved from that point pretty dramatically.

Responses:

[deleted] 19
- You are drastically underestimating the African American support. - MDH Sep 23, 06:01 6
  - [deleted] 5
    - I concur with this, though I think Trump did Clinton a favor by embracing stop and frisk -- nm - ty97 Sep 23, 06:18 1
      - [deleted]
    - Except Obama wasn';t running against a literal white supremecist - Beaker Sep 23, 06:11 1
      - [deleted]
    - Oh there's a small difference for sure, but it's definitely not as large as Fox, etc. are making it out to be. -- nm - MDH Sep 23, 06:10
- I could go back to 2008 for similar data points. But the main point is this: Most people aren't enage in the election process until the debates - TWuG Sep 23, 05:56 11
  - [deleted] 4
    - Recency effect. 2012 was pretty loud. -- nm - TWuG Sep 23, 06:05 2
      - [deleted] 1
        
        Social media isn't a good measure of the entire voter base. Partisans may be louder this cycle, but if - TWuG Sep 23, 06:20
    - The number of people who say their decision is locked in (in polls) is higher than past years, IIRC -- nm - ty97 Sep 23, 06:01
  - And yet, I also keep reading how the person in front in early September basically always wins. - ty97 Sep 23, 05:59 5
    - That's a really small dataset, so... -- nm - TWuG Sep 23, 06:03 4
      - It's the same dataset you're using for 'people not being engaged until the debates' -- nm - ty97 Sep 23, 06:04 3
        
        No, it's a collection of datasets (the polls). September predicting November is interesting. - TWuG Sep 23, 06:14 2
        
        It's the same number of Presidential election in the datasets - ty97 Sep 23, 06:17 1
        
        To your IM: No. The polls between now and November will have stronger predictive value than the - TWuG Sep 23, 06:25

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I'll panic when it's mid-October, we've had debates and she still sits under 60% to win.

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