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Not quite two weeks to go Election Contest Announcement

Posted by Reagen Oct 24 '16, 10:44

Send ballots to [email protected] by Nov 7,12 a.m.

Electoral Vote Prediction
*100 points each for perfect Clinton and Trump electoral vote totals, subtracting 1 for misses in either direction. Negative points are possible.

Popular Vote Prediction
*100 points each for perfect Clinton and Trump popular vote percentage down to the nearest tenth of a percentage. 1 point subtracted for each tenth away.
*25 points for Gary Johnson national popular vote percentage to the nearest tenth. 1 point subtracted for each tenth away.
*50 points for Evan McMullin Utah-only popular vote percentage to the nearest tenth. 1 point subtracted for each tenth away.
*Negative points are possible in each case.

Top States – 5 points each, any order
*Top 3 states for Clinton in vote % (exclude DC)
*Top 3 states for Trump in vote %
*Top 3 states for Johnson in vote %

Contested States
*10 points for correctly predicting two-way winner between Clinton and Trump
Assign a margin from 0-10 for the two-way winner – *10 points for correctly predicting – 1 point off for every percentage missed. Margins cover between the nearest half points. i.e. a +2 prediction covers between +1.5 and 2.5.
*Example: Prediction of Clinton +5, Result, Clinton +1.2 = 10 points for winner, 10-4 = 6 points for margin. Prediction of Clinton +2, Result, Trump +3.6 = 0 points for winner, 10-6 = 4 points for margin
*Margin of 10 covers margins that exceed this result, Margin of 0 includes +0.5 to -0.5.
*Negative points not possible.

AK
AZ
CO
FL
GA
IN
IA
KS
MI
MN
MO
MT
NV
NH
NC
OH
PA
SC
TX
UT (Reminder – Clinton v Trump only)
VA
WI

Will Maine or Nebraska split their electoral vote? (10 points each)
ME
NE

Utah – All-way winner (10 points)

Senate 10 points per
WI
IN
NH
MO
NV
PA
NC
KY
AZ

House Margin
*Predict change in seats after election, +D or +R
50 points, 1 point subtracted for each amount away from change. Negative points possible.

Tie breaker 1: What time (in EST) will the state of Michigan be called on CNN? (poll closes at 8 pm EST)

Tie breaker 2: What will the reported turnout of the election be to the nearest tenth of a percent?

Responses:

what are the prizes? -- nm - kilbooooo Oct 24, 11:13
can someone just make a google doc where we plug our numbers in? -- nm - mr monkey Oct 24, 10:51 15
- I thought about making a form but I don't know enough about how to do that. -- nm - Reagen Oct 24, 10:52 14
  - Google doc forms are super easy FWIW -- nm - ty97 Oct 24, 11:40
  - max! -- nm - mr monkey Oct 24, 10:54 12
    - dude. we say "hit it, max!" -- nm - university of amanda jones Oct 24, 11:01
    - I could set that up tonight for easy data collection but the tricky part is if you want to allow players to adjust their votes after first submitting. -- nm - Max Oct 24, 10:57 10
      - I've done this in Google Docs for a contest I've been running - you can set it up so that people can change their answers. However... - Roger More Oct 24, 11:08 7
        
        Plus, have you found any way for them to get a summary of their submitted answers? Seems that's only available for Google Business. -- nm - Max Oct 24, 11:12 6
        
        There's a button under Settings (the cog) where respondents can see summary charts and text responses - I think that gives access to everything -- nm - Roger More Oct 24, 11:22 2
        
        I've done a test - this gives a summary of all submitted answers. But allowing them to edit their response allows them to see how they responded in - Roger More Oct 24, 11:24 1
        
        Really the Calvins method is the best form submission I've used. Flexible multiple choice, ranking, saved for easy viewing. -- nm - Max Oct 24, 11:41
        
        can't they access a printable form? "show me a pdf?" (I have google apps for business; I could make you an account if you want to look.) - university of amanda jones Oct 24, 11:16 2
        
        I don't think there's such a thing for free personal Forms, but I'm interested in getting access to your business -- nm - Max Oct 24, 11:20 1
        
        I have the paid version of google apps from when it was free. I'll make you an account. you know what your password is, right? -- nm - university of amanda jones Oct 24, 11:21
      - They could always submit a second, overriding ballot. But I'd ask people to wait until close to the end. - Reagen Oct 24, 10:59 1
        
        potential solution if you create a form in google docs -- (link) - mr monkey Oct 24, 11:03
Tie breaker 2 is the question I find most interesting right now. -- nm - Max Oct 24, 10:51
[deleted] 1
- Yup. :-) -- nm - Krusty Oct 24, 11:31
Should be fun, thanks for putting this together. -- nm - Strongbad Oct 24, 10:46

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Not quite two weeks to go Election Contest Announcement

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