ST Alpha - "Nov. 1 Nowcast 2016: Hillary at 72.2%. Nov. 1 Nowcast 2012: Obama at 80.9 " (Reading a Post)

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Nov. 1 Nowcast 2016: Hillary at 72.2%. Nov. 1 Nowcast 2012: Obama at 80.9

Posted by TWuG Nov 1 '16, 10:24

If you compare "days from election", then their chances are closer.

2012 election was held on Nov 6, so the comparison date there would be Oct 30 when he had 77.4% chance.

Responses:

Itll be down to 60% by the end of the week unfortunately -- nm - Jovian Nov 1, 11:06
[deleted] 6
- Well, looking back over the campaign, trend lines don't seem to matter. - TWuG Nov 1, 11:03 2
  - [deleted]
  - Looking back over the campaign, nothing matters and we're all doomed. -- nm - Ender Nov 1, 11:06
- I can't think of any data to back this up, but off the top of my head, I would say trend lines matter more the closer you get to the election. - RCynic and Old Lace Nov 1, 11:00 2
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  - Her concert series stuff that's happening over the next couple of days should be decent positive publicity. -- nm - Volnelk Nov 1, 11:06
I'm surprised the senate forecast is remaining rather consistently blue. What Republican blew it? -- nm - Mop Nov 1, 10:44 2
- From what I've heard (via friends in various campaigns), it's not any one candidate. A lot of candidates in the battleground states, in terms of ... - RCynic and Old Lace Nov 1, 10:58
- RCP is still showing Senate 51-49 R. Dem pickups in IN, PA, WI, IL. Rep pickup in NV -- nm - Strongbad Nov 1, 10:50
if you read what Silver's writing outside of the forecasts, he basically puts all of Trump's chances of winning on the odds of the polls being wrong. - Reagen Nov 1, 10:34 8
- [deleted] 2
  - You're like a psychic who focuses only on the times their predictions were right. - TWuG Nov 1, 11:09 1
    - You mean "psycho" - Reagen Nov 1, 11:26
- I thought his larger issue was that he's dividing the undecideds evenly in his projections, but he can't discount the possibility that undecideds... - Inigo Nov 1, 10:39 1
  - I think that ties in with polling being in error. - TWuG Nov 1, 10:42
- Yeah, I think that if pollsters are going to be wrong, this is probably the election it'll happen. - TWuG Nov 1, 10:39 2
  - Plus, Miley Cyrus will move. It's motivational in that polling booth. -- nm - JaxSean Nov 1, 11:01
  - I agree. The Trump factor + the uncertainty in voting turnout with this being the first presidential election post-Obama - Strongbad Nov 1, 10:44
The big difference between the two was that momentum wasn't in Romney's favor whereas Trump has all the momentum. -- (edited) - Inigo Nov 1, 10:31 4
- I think "momentum" is a spurious concept. Her path looks harder than Obama's, but Trump's also looks harder than Romney's - TWuG Nov 1, 10:36 3
  - When polls widen or close based on specific events, it's not spurious. It's momentum. - Inigo Nov 1, 10:43 1
    - That's not "momentum", that's the polls tightening. Also, the FBI news isn't reflected fully in polls yet. - TWuG Nov 1, 10:46
  - well put -- nm - philip k mud Nov 1, 10:38

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Nov. 1 Nowcast 2016: Hillary at 72.2%. Nov. 1 Nowcast 2012: Obama at 80.9

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