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1: Dec 11, 14:43
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3: Dec 11, 07:59
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5: Dec 10, 12:28
6: Dec 10, 09:30
7: Dec 10, 05:59
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Posts: 151
In response to
"
Nov. 1 Nowcast 2016: Hillary at 72.2%. Nov. 1 Nowcast 2012: Obama at 80.9
"
by
TWuG
The big difference between the two was that momentum wasn't in Romney's favor whereas Trump has all the momentum. -- (edited)
Posted by
Inigo (aka Inigo)
Nov 1 '16, 10:31
But what that tells me is that right now Hillary has a smaller chance to win than someone who won by around 4%.
Responses:
I think "momentum" is a spurious concept. Her path looks harder than Obama's, but Trump's also looks harder than Romney's
-
TWuG
Nov 1, 10:36
3
When polls widen or close based on specific events, it's not spurious. It's momentum.
-
Inigo
Nov 1, 10:43
1
That's not "momentum", that's the polls tightening. Also, the FBI news isn't reflected fully in polls yet.
-
TWuG
Nov 1, 10:46
well put -- nm
-
philip k mud
Nov 1, 10:38
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