ST Alpha - "if you read what Silver's writing outside of the forecasts, he basically puts all of Trump's chances of winning on the odds of the polls being wrong." (Reading a Post)

Down to Post

Backboards:

Posts: 151

In response to "Nov. 1 Nowcast 2016: Hillary at 72.2%. Nov. 1 Nowcast 2012: Obama at 80.9 " by TWuG

if you read what Silver's writing outside of the forecasts, he basically puts all of Trump's chances of winning on the odds of the polls being wrong.

Posted by Reagen Nov 1 '16, 10:34

there was a post of his earlier where he said (paraphrasing): "There is zero chance of Trump being ahead in the polls. But there is a 20% chance of the polls being wrong"

Responses:

[deleted] 2
- You're like a psychic who focuses only on the times their predictions were right. - TWuG Nov 1, 11:09 1
  - You mean "psycho" - Reagen Nov 1, 11:26
I thought his larger issue was that he's dividing the undecideds evenly in his projections, but he can't discount the possibility that undecideds... - Inigo Nov 1, 10:39 1
- I think that ties in with polling being in error. - TWuG Nov 1, 10:42
Yeah, I think that if pollsters are going to be wrong, this is probably the election it'll happen. - TWuG Nov 1, 10:39 2
- Plus, Miley Cyrus will move. It's motivational in that polling booth. -- nm - JaxSean Nov 1, 11:01
- I agree. The Trump factor + the uncertainty in voting turnout with this being the first presidential election post-Obama - Strongbad Nov 1, 10:44

Post a message top

if you read what Silver's writing outside of the forecasts, he basically puts all of Trump's chances of winning on the odds of the polls being wrong.

Replies are disabled on threads older than 7 days.