Unaffiliated early voting is up 40% from 2012. Per NYT (see inside) Clinton has a 10 point advantage in unaffiliateds.
Posted by
MDH
Nov 2 '16, 07:45
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Perhaps the most striking change from 2012 is the increase in turnout among unaffiliated voters. Their turnout has increased by nearly 40 percent in four years.
Again, registration changes account for a lot of the shift: The number of registered unaffiliated voters is up 21 percent. As with Republican voters, there has also been an increase in turnout among reliable unaffiliated voters.
The big number of unaffiliated voters, however, makes it more important to try to figure out which way they lean. Their demographic characteristics are conflicting: On the one hand, they’re disproportionately white. On the other, they’re disproportionately young, urban, newly registered and born outside of the state.
In our poll of early voters, Mrs. Clinton has a 49-39 lead among unaffiliated voters who have cast ballots. Mr. Trump has only a 10-point lead, 47 percent to 37 percent, among unaffiliated white voters.
More generally, Mrs. Clinton has a two-point lead among unaffiliated voters in our two North Carolina polls, which average to a three-point lead for Mrs. Clinton.
In fact, she has a lead among unaffiliated voters in all five Upshot/Siena polls — including those in Florida and Pennsylvania.
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