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In response to "What's causing this? If African-Americans votes are down for Hillary, how is she gaining ground in Georgia? -- nm" by Inigo

If. -- nm

Posted by Reagen Nov 4 '16, 08:00

(No message)

Responses:

[deleted] 6
- she's actually doing better in margin - Obama won 93-6 - most cross tabs I see are like 95-2 this time. -- nm* - Reagen Nov 4, 08:23 5
  - [deleted] 4
    - I think that's an interesting tool but kind of coarsely applied - Reagen Nov 4, 08:35 3
      - [deleted] 2
        
        I found it waaaay too easy to build a 400EV coalition for Clinton, on the flip side of that. -- nm - Reagen Nov 4, 08:37 1
        
        [deleted]
It seems counter-intuitive to other polling which shows her support by African-Americans is down compared to Obama. - Inigo Nov 4, 08:05 1
- College educated whites in Atlanta? -- nm - TWuG Nov 4, 08:06
And that "if" is based on early voting, IINM, which has been vastly curtailed in enough places that it could be - TWuG Nov 4, 08:03 9
- [deleted]
- If black support more closely follows 2004-2010-2014 turnout than 2008-2012 turnout - Strongbad Nov 4, 08:08 7
  - I don't know why there's any thought it would follow off-year support closer than election year support. -- nm - Reagen Nov 4, 08:09 5
    - Hmmmm. The black vote was particularly motivated in 2008 and 2012. I wonder if there were any factors we could isolate. - Name Withheld by Request Nov 4, 08:12 4
      - c'mon, you know what I'm talking about - Reagen Nov 4, 08:14 3
        
        Hence a wink, but serious about 2000 being a better baseline to use in modelling this year than 2008 and 2012 which will be clear outliers for years. -- nm - Name Withheld by Request Nov 4, 08:18 2
        
        the white vote in 2000 was 81%, AA 10% and Latino only 7%. that's not happening this year - mr monkey Nov 4, 08:23 1
        
        Sure, but my head when to the turnout percentage of the eligible AA vote. Not their proportion of the overall vote. -- nm - Name Withheld by Request Nov 4, 08:26
  - [deleted]

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