ST Alpha - "And that "if" is based on early voting, IINM, which has been vastly curtailed in enough places that it could be" (Reading a Post)

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In response to "If. -- nm" by Reagen

And that "if" is based on early voting, IINM, which has been vastly curtailed in enough places that it could be

Posted by TWuG Nov 4 '16, 08:03

the reason black support looks slightly off.

Responses:

[deleted]
If black support more closely follows 2004-2010-2014 turnout than 2008-2012 turnout - Strongbad Nov 4, 08:08 7
- I don't know why there's any thought it would follow off-year support closer than election year support. -- nm - Reagen Nov 4, 08:09 5
  - Hmmmm. The black vote was particularly motivated in 2008 and 2012. I wonder if there were any factors we could isolate. - Name Withheld by Request Nov 4, 08:12 4
    - c'mon, you know what I'm talking about - Reagen Nov 4, 08:14 3
      - Hence a wink, but serious about 2000 being a better baseline to use in modelling this year than 2008 and 2012 which will be clear outliers for years. -- nm - Name Withheld by Request Nov 4, 08:18 2
        
        the white vote in 2000 was 81%, AA 10% and Latino only 7%. that's not happening this year - mr monkey Nov 4, 08:23 1
        
        Sure, but my head when to the turnout percentage of the eligible AA vote. Not their proportion of the overall vote. -- nm - Name Withheld by Request Nov 4, 08:26
- [deleted]

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