ST Alpha - "If black support more closely follows 2004-2010-2014 turnout than 2008-2012 turnout" (Reading a Post)

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In response to "And that "if" is based on early voting, IINM, which has been vastly curtailed in enough places that it could be" by TWuG

If black support more closely follows 2004-2010-2014 turnout than 2008-2012 turnout

Posted by Strongbad (aka Rambler14) Nov 4 '16, 08:08

Why are we blaming that on early voting being curtailed?

Can't we attribute some of that to the race of the person we're voting for?

Responses:

I don't know why there's any thought it would follow off-year support closer than election year support. -- nm - Reagen Nov 4, 08:09 5
- Hmmmm. The black vote was particularly motivated in 2008 and 2012. I wonder if there were any factors we could isolate. - Name Withheld by Request Nov 4, 08:12 4
  - c'mon, you know what I'm talking about - Reagen Nov 4, 08:14 3
    - Hence a wink, but serious about 2000 being a better baseline to use in modelling this year than 2008 and 2012 which will be clear outliers for years. -- nm - Name Withheld by Request Nov 4, 08:18 2
      - the white vote in 2000 was 81%, AA 10% and Latino only 7%. that's not happening this year - mr monkey Nov 4, 08:23 1
        
        Sure, but my head when to the turnout percentage of the eligible AA vote. Not their proportion of the overall vote. -- nm - Name Withheld by Request Nov 4, 08:26
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