ST Alpha - "I don't know why there's any thought it would follow off-year support closer than election year support. -- nm" (Reading a Post)

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In response to "If black support more closely follows 2004-2010-2014 turnout than 2008-2012 turnout" by Strongbad

I don't know why there's any thought it would follow off-year support closer than election year support. -- nm

Posted by Reagen Nov 4 '16, 08:09

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Responses:

Hmmmm. The black vote was particularly motivated in 2008 and 2012. I wonder if there were any factors we could isolate. - Name Withheld by Request Nov 4, 08:12 4
- c'mon, you know what I'm talking about - Reagen Nov 4, 08:14 3
  - Hence a wink, but serious about 2000 being a better baseline to use in modelling this year than 2008 and 2012 which will be clear outliers for years. -- nm - Name Withheld by Request Nov 4, 08:18 2
    - the white vote in 2000 was 81%, AA 10% and Latino only 7%. that's not happening this year - mr monkey Nov 4, 08:23 1
      - Sure, but my head when to the turnout percentage of the eligible AA vote. Not their proportion of the overall vote. -- nm - Name Withheld by Request Nov 4, 08:26

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