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In response to
"Which sounds ridiculously low. -- nm"
by
Roger More
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if you actually look at the report, it details "at least" 31,000 jobs that would be lost but acknowledges the losses could well be higher....
Posted by
x (aka dmuck)
Jan 12 '17, 12:27
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"If the U.S. were to enact a 35 percent tariff on light vehicles imported from Mexico, CAR estimates the
sales impact would be 450,000 units in the United States, and an implied loss of nearly 6,700 North
American assembly jobs. These 6,700 North American assembly jobs lost from the higher price of
Mexican imported light vehicles are just the tip of the iceberg, however. When it comes to U.S.
employment, the impact could be much larger.
Mexican-assembled vehicles contain U.S. parts, engines, transmissions, and other content—in 2015,
Mexican vehicle exports contained an average of 40.3 percent U.S. content. The U.S. parts employment
impact of the lost Mexican import sales would result in approximately 20,000 U.S. parts jobs lost.
Automakers who assemble in the United States utilize Mexican parts and components that would also
be subject to this tax. U.S. vehicle production contains an average of 11.7 percent Mexican parts and
components content. Since the price of the Mexican parts content in U.S. light vehicle production would
rise by 35 percent, that would result in approximately 11,000 additional U.S. assembly jobs lost.
At least 31,000 U.S. jobs could be lost—in addition to some proportion of the 6,700 North American job
loss—as a result of a 35 percent tariff on light vehicles and parts imports from Mexico. There are two
factors that could raise the jobs impact even further:
• Many parts and components cross the U.S.-Mexico border multiple times before being installed at a
final assembly plant in either country for sale in the United States; taxing these parts at each border
crossing would multiply the impact of the tariff.
• Job losses would not be evenly distributed and would have an impact on individual automakers’ and
suppliers’ capacity utilization, which could lead to plant closures and broader job impacts."
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Responses:
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