ST Alpha - "It would be difficult to find any over 85%, although I think there were one or two outliers up there. -- nm" (Reading a Post)

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In response to "The same kind of "evidence" that showed he had a 99% chance of losing the election?" by Cuzzin Todd

It would be difficult to find any over 85%, although I think there were one or two outliers up there. -- nm

Posted by mara Jan 21 '17, 15:55

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Responses:

My recollection is that almost everybody other than 538 was in the mid-upper 90s on election day -- nm - ty97 Jan 21, 16:06 8
- bookies were paying out tickets for Hilary prior to the election, doesn't get more sure thing than that -- nm - Beaker Jan 21, 16:13 3
  - show me a bookie who pays out before the race is over, and i'll show you a bookie.... - x Jan 21, 16:16 2
    - I wonder if it saved them some bucks in the long run - Reagen Jan 21, 16:18 1
      - right. you pay out early to hedge your bets....nm - x Jan 21, 16:21
- It's weird (but I mean, I know why people are trying this) that Silver is getting hammered for polling failures - Reagen Jan 21, 16:08 3
  - the real problem is that most people don't understand how probability works....nm - x Jan 21, 16:10 1
    - There's a 50/50/50 chance you're right about that. -- nm* - Cuzzin Todd Jan 21, 16:20
  - Conservatives have hated him for years and don't care about facts. They just want a pound of flesh from Mr. Smarty Pants. -- nm - David, ST's Ultimate Lover Jan 21, 16:10

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