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In response to
"Illinois State, the #33 team in the country in RPI, just got hosed."
by
David
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Bubble Watch said they probably weren't gonna get in and they were right.
Posted by
Tim (aka othertim)
Mar 12 '17, 15:41
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Illinois State [27-6 (17-1), RPI: 35, SOS: 158] Illinois State was Arch Madness's top seed thanks to a 17-1 record in conference play (and a tiebreak over fellow 17-1 Wichita State); combined the Shockers and Redbirds were 36-0 against the rest of the Valley this season. Going 1-2 against the Shockers is hardly a crime. On the surface, it might be tempting to argue as vociferously for ISU as we would have for Wichita State. Sunday's result was Wichita's third top-100 win; ISU has two; the RPI and schedule numbers are a comparative wash; and so on. Unfortunately, it's not nearly as easy to make ISU's case. One key difference is bad losses. Wichita State has nothing outside the top 50; Illinois State lost on a neutral floor to San Fransisco and at Tulsa and Murray State in the nonconference. The BPI ranks the Redbirds in the high 50s (with a mid-40s strength of record rank), KenPom.com in high 50s. The committee probably doesn't care about that stuff, but the point is that -- even if you think Dan Muller's team is tourney-worth, and we do -- there's no overwhelming analytics-based argument we can marshall to ISU's defense. Illinois State is still sitting at home hoping bubble teams lose and (or?) the committee grants them its mercy. That's the best it can do right now.
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