ST Alpha - "If it gets out it will look very little like it does now and should lose a ton of support (that it currently has). -- nm" (Reading a Post)

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In response to "Eh, if it gets out of the Senate with changes, the Freedom Caucus will go back to opposing it. -- nm" by mara

If it gets out it will look very little like it does now and should lose a ton of support (that it currently has). -- nm

Posted by Spawn May 4 '17, 11:26

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Responses:

Do we know what a senate vote would look like with the current bill ? -- nm - eag May 4, 11:27 28
- It's very hard to find that, because it appears to be so unlikely. -- (link) - mara May 4, 11:32
- I'd be surprised if the current bill ever comes up for a vote in the Senate. It's not viable there. - Will Hunting May 4, 11:31 25
  - It'll pass in the Senate...they only need 51 votes and there are 52 Republicans there - Remlik May 4, 11:38 22
    - Read the article I linked. It's not so simple. -- nm - mara May 4, 11:41 1
      - god I hope you're right. -- nm - Remlik May 4, 11:43
    - The Senate isn't voting unanimously on this. There are plenty who like their jobs. - Will Hunting May 4, 11:41
    - There are a couple of moderate republican senators that have been very critical of the bill. -- nm - pmb May 4, 11:40
    - This version is highly unlikely to pass the (slightly more moderate) Senate -- nm - ty97 May 4, 11:39 6
      - even before they get into the details it has to pass the Byrd test (to reduce the deficit) or else they can't take it thru Reconciliation -- nm - decline May 4, 11:47
      - But they can change it and send it to reconciliation -- nm - ty97 May 4, 11:40 4
        
        The question is how they can reconcile it. They're dancing on razor blade right now. If it moves at all further left they'll lose the freedom caucus -- nm - pmb May 4, 11:41 3
        
        I'd hope so, but I doubt it. I think FC fought to get their best starting position knowing they'd never get this version through the Senate -- nm - ty97 May 4, 11:42 2
        
        I don't know. I see the FC generally unwilling to bend. We know they didn't the first time. -- nm - pmb May 4, 11:46 1
        
        I'd be fine with them killing it, but I think they know they could only set the starting line, not the finish line - ty97 May 4, 11:49
    - There are republicans there that have said they will not vote for it in the current form. -- nm - Spawn May 4, 11:39 10
      - Uh-huh. A. the GOP is now energized and the amount of pressure brought to bear on them will be crazy. B. They'll vote for it so they won't be cut out - Remlik May 4, 11:42 9
        
        Senate's different. They aren't in gerrymandered districts -- nm* - ty97 May 4, 11:43 8
        
        And only a third of them are up for re-election in 2018. -- nm - mara May 4, 11:45 2
        
        Sure, and some of them are up in 2020 when this would still be a huge campaign deal -- nm - ty97 May 4, 11:50 1
        
        I can't believe they have the Medicare stuff happening in 2020. - Will Hunting May 4, 11:53
        
        Also they are a midterm from possibly loosing there majority - eag May 4, 11:44 4
        
        ...have you looked at the 2018 senate map? - znufrii, definitely not 40 May 4, 11:49 2
        
        After this last year politically - eag May 4, 11:55 1
        
        Again, I invite you to look at the map. -- nm - znufrii, definitely not 40 May 4, 11:56
        
        The House could be in play. They could afford to lose 22 votes today -- - Will Hunting May 4, 11:49
  - Agreed it won't. And hopefully those republicans who shifted to yes from the moderates (even as the bill got worse) will pay the price next election. -- nm - pmb May 4, 11:32 1
    - I want to hear the profiles in courage of those saying "Senate, please help us!" -- nm - Will Hunting May 4, 11:36
- It would not pass from all I have heard. Largely due to the subsidies. -- nm* - Spawn May 4, 11:28

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