REPOST: Election prediction contest
Submit guesses for the following to [email protected] by 12:01 am PST Nov. 4 (i.e. election day)
Overall Electoral Vote
Popular Vote for top two candidates to tenth of a %
State with highest % for Obama (excluding DC)
State with highest % for McCain
Winners of:
PA OH FL MO VA CO IN NV NC WV GA MT
Will NE or ME split its electoral votes? (yes/no on either state)
Winner of Senate races:
MN KY GA NC AK OR MS NH
Tiebreaker: +/- of Dem congressional seats from 2006 election results
Scoring:
* 100 points for perfect EV score – subtract 1 point for each EV off – but points are not subtracted on both sides. e.g. prediction of 300-238, final result 328-200 = 72 points
* 100 points for perfect popular vote % to the first decimal – 1 point off for each tenth % difference – points –will be- subtracted from both sides. e.g. prediction of 50.5, 45.3, final result 52.1-46.6 = 100-16-13= 71 points
In both cases it is possible to go negative – don’t be off by more than 100 votes or 5%
* 20 points each for highest % state
* 5 points each of winner of individual states
* 5 points for electoral split
* 5 points for Senate races
There will be a small prize.