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In response to
"Re B2: Oscar bets--I'd pass on all, but if I had to bet--I'd take the long shots on Lady Bird, Ronan, and Gerwig in the hopes voters being swayed -- (edited)"
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I put a bet on Shape of Water for Best Picture at 8-1 after the Golden Globes. Considering a small one on Get Out to see how the campaign season goes.
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Also on Gerwig for Director from prior to the Golden Globes but expect to lose that one. Considering a small one on Daniel Day Lewis considering the Phantom Thread surprise and his track record. (It's also a bit of a fade on Oldman, but the man deserves an Oscar already.)
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