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In response to
"Granting that his support is far far higher than it should be and that we can't relax for a second, I don't quite get why people say he'll be"
by
Reagen
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I would add in one important factor: We are among the 10 to 15% of the population that actively pays attention to politics on a daily basis.
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About another 45 to 50% of the people pay attention to political issues on a daily basis.
But it's that remaining 40% that can swing an election.
The politically interested folks tend to vote regularly and examine issues. Maybe half of the non-interested folks (that 40%) will vote at all, but if they do, they are the ones who say they are "undecided" a week before an election. They are easily swayed by the story of the moment.
So, yeah, Trump starts off with a hard-core base of about a quarter to a third of American voters, many of whom had not voted in prior elections for quite some time. He's got the ultra-right and hardline conservatives locked up. Period.
Plus he has a huge lead in conservative rural states, which gives him an edge in the Electoral College (see, e.g., https://www.economist.com/briefing/2018/07/12/americas-electoral-system-gives-the-republicans-advantages-over-democrats).
Just those two bits together likely gives him 40% of the vote, but 45% of the Electoral College vote.
Meanwhile, the moderates, moderately progressive, quite progressive, and hardline liberals are going to be arguing about a dozen different potential candidates. And the more ideological they are, the more likely they will NOT vote (or be politically engaged) if their preferred candidate does not win the nomination.
Essentially, we're looking at something close to a repeat of the 1972 Presidential election (in my opinion).
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Responses:
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