Braves beat writer encapsulates the Jeff Francoeur adventure.
Posted by
David (aka David)
May 21 '09, 09:54
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If it seems like we�ve been down this Jeff Francoeur road before and flogged this horse to its death, well, it�s probably because we have, or at least come close. But at a certain point, the numbers just can�t be avoided, dismissed, or explained away.
Sooner or later, and I�d think sooner than later, the Braves right fielder is going to have to produce better statistics for an extended period, or the Braves are probably going to have to go in another direction.
But that probably goes without saying, right? I mean, it�s not jumping to any rash conclusions to say the Braves will have to get more at some point this season than they�re getting now from Francoeur, or than they got from him last season, or his stay in Atlanta�s lineup won�t continue in perpetuity.
Does he get more scrutiny than others? Sure. Because the bar was raised so high by his first half-season performance in 2005, and by all of us in the media, and by fans who bought thousands of jerseys, and by Delta making him a pitchman, and Sports Illustrated dubbing him �The Natural� two months into his career.
When the ascendance is so sensational, the fall can be a lot harder, a lot tougher.
So where are we, exactly, with Francoeur? Is this �just a little slump,� as he told me on Sunday, when he talked about how everyone goes through these periods during a season?
Is it something significantly bigger, as he indicated to our own Jeff Schultz yesterday, when Francoeur said Texas hitting coach Rudy Jaramillo had called him to ask what happened and Francoeur realized the Rangers coach was right, and that in the face of his first slump of the season he�d quickly abandoned all the things Francoeur worked on with the Rangers hitting guru this offseason?
Or, is it even bigger than that? By that I mean, is there something that�s going to hold Francoeur back, something that will make it impossible for him to ever approach the level of stardom so many of us (prematurely) predicted for him after he tore up major league pitching and charmed crowds media like with his charisma and athleticism during those heady first months in The Show?
It�s still too early to know where this is going, regardless of what some people might think. You or I might have a good idea, might believe what we believe and presume to know, but we don�t. Not really.
I mean, he�s still only 25, so it�s not as if the dye has already been cast.
But here�s what we do know: After hitting .287 with seven extra-base hits (three homers) and 16 RBI in his first 22 games, Francoeur is 11-for-62 (.177) in his past 16 games with two doubles, three RBI and a .197 on-base percentage and .210 slugging percentage. He has one walk (12 strikeouts) in that span.
For the season, he�s hitting .252 with a .272 OBP (third-worst among NL regulars) and a .371 slugging percentage. And he�s hit .190 (19-for-100) against right-handed pitchers, also the third-worst mark among league regulars).
But let�s go bigger picture. Much bigger picture.
After arriving from Double-A in July 2005, Francoeur hit a stunning .379 with 10 home runs and 30 RBI in his first 33 games, posting a .394 OBP and .734 slugging percentage in that stretch, despite not walking once in 124 at-bats.
Here�s what he�s done in 554 games and 2,174 at-bats since that point, beginning Aug. 21, 2005:
Francoeur has hit .260 with 66 homers, 313 RBI, 120 walks, 426 strikeouts, 8 steals (in 19 attempts), and grounded into 54 double plays. He has produced a .304 OBP and .412 slugging percentage (.716 OPS) in 554 games.
I didn�t have much time this afternoon, but I tried to come up with someone even remotely similar in recent years, someone who made a big splash in his initial time in the majors but has fallen short of expecations since.
You all can probably think of some better comparisons, but here�s one that came to mind: Austin Kearns.
Kearns hit .328 with seven homers, 23 RBI and a .448 OBP and .569 slugging percentage in his first 34 games in the majors in 2002. Since then, he�s hit .255 with 98 homers, 397 RBI in 760 games, with a .350 OBP and .428 slugging percentage.
Kearns probably didn�t have the raw power of Francoeur, never hit 29 homers like Francoeur did in 2006, never won a Gold Glove like Francoeur did in 2007. But he did have a lot more walks, fewer strikeouts, a higher OBP than Frenchy.
Kearns hit 15 or more homers four times, with a high of 24 in 2006, when he had a .363 OBP and .467 slugging percentage with Cincy and Washington, at age 26.
He fell off sharply after that, totaling 23 homers and 106 RBI in 900 at-bats over the 2007-2008 seasons, his average falling to .217 with a .311 OBP and .316 slugging percentage in a 86 games in 2008.
Kearns is hitting .213 with three homers and 15 RBI in 32 games for the Nationals this season.
What does he have to do with Francoeur? Maybe nothing. But he came to mind.
Kearns finished third in the NL Rookie of the Year balloting in 2002 at age 22, and Francoeur finished third in the NL Rookie of the Year balloting in 2005, at 21.
The Francoeur story is still being written. He�s 25. But unless he gets things turned around, you can�t help but wonder how many more chapters will be written in his hometown, where for a while it sure seemed like Francoeur was destined to be the next Golden Boy, the next Chipper Jones.
That doesn�t seem nearly as likely these days.
Despite his erosion in power numbers after his 29-homer season in 2006 (to 19 homers in 2007), Francoeur still had a solid .283 average with 59 homers, 229 RBI and a .795 OPS in his first 357 games in the majors, through Aug. 20, 2007.
In 230 games since then, since Aug. 21, 2007, he�s hit .240 with 17 homers 114 RBI and a .649 OPS, including a .290 on-base percentage. That�s 230 games.
And in his past 162 games, he�s hit .232 with 11 homers, 70 RBI and a .285 OBP and .338 slugging percentage.
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